Zalando SE
Zalando SE operates an online platform for fashion and lifestyle products in Germany and internationally. The company operates through Business-to-Business and Business-to-Consumer segments. It engages in the development, sourcing, marketing, retail, and commission sale of various type of goods, in…
Zalando SE operates an online platform for fashion and lifestyle products in Germany and internationally. The company operates through Business-to-Business and Business-to-Consumer segments. It engages in the development, sourcing, marketing, retail, and commission sale of various type of goods, including shoes, apparel, accessories, and beauty products with free delivery and returns, as well as various payment options. The company sells its products through Lounge by Zalando and its outlets. Zalando SE was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Berlin, Germany.Looks undervalued
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly.
Other models: EUR 3.39–51.15 (median 38.24). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price below modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using TTM through 30 Sep 2026 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 6.06% growth, 3.1% terminal growth, and 10.8% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 6.06%, discount rate 10.80%, terminal growth 3.10% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 6.1% (sector default 7.2%, own revenue history 6.1%, analyst revenue consensus 5.5%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 5.5% a year; the growth assumption used is 6.1%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — EUR 43.35 (+57.7%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— EUR 3.39 (-87.7%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— EUR 43.35 (+57.7%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 11.4x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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FCFF (steady state)
— EUR 38.24 (+39.1%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 11.4x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— EUR 51.15 (+86.1%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— EUR 43.15 (+57.0%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 11.4x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— EUR 153.40 (+458.0%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear EUR 32.50 | 15.4% |
| Base EUR 43.35 | 36.6% |
| Bull EUR 62.08 | 55.7% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At EUR 27.49 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 3.1%, discount 10.8%).
Compare: the market implies -4.4% a year, this model assumes 6.1%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.1% | 49.50 | 42.07 | 36.57 | 32.33 | 28.97 |
| 4.1% | 54.07 | 45.89 | 39.84 | 35.18 | 31.48 |
| 6.1% | 58.98 | 50.00 | 43.35 | 38.23 | 34.17 |
| 8.1% | 64.26 | 54.40 | 47.11 | 41.50 | 37.05 |
| 10.1% | 69.92 | 59.13 | 51.15 | 45.01 | 40.14 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 80 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +7.2% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 0.1x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 8% | 0 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Discretionary
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZAL.DE (this company) | EUR 27.49 | 36.6% | 108.5 | 2.6 | – | 80 |
| KGF.L Kingfisher plc | GBP 3.72 | 45.2% | 27.0 | 1.1 | 3.3% | 74 |
| BWY.L Bellway p.l.c. | GBP 23.01 | 43.6% | 14.0 | 0.8 | 3.1% | 70 |
| INCH.L Inchcape plc | GBP 6.41 | 37.3% | 9.0 | 1.9 | 4.1% | 80 |
| DECK Deckers Brands | USD 87.74 | 34.9% | 11.2 | 5.1 | – | 100 |
| EXPE Expedia Group | USD 272.48 | 29.6% | 15.8 | 20.2 | 0.7% | 100 |
| BKNG Booking Holdings | USD 168.72 | 28.9% | 17.7 | – | 1.0% | 100 |
| PETS.L Pets at Home Group Plc | GBP 2.58 | 25.2% | 18.8 | 1.2 | 2.9% | 82 |
| PNDORA.CO Pandora A/S | DKK 888.40 | 25.0% | 12.2 | 14.6 | 2.3% | 100 |
| Peer median | 14.9 | 1.9 | ||||
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 12:46
| Revenue | EUR 13,666,200,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | EUR 1,051,300,000 |
| EBIT | EUR 539,800,000 |
| Net income | EUR 61,900,000 |
| Free cash flow | EUR 706,800,000 |
| Capital expenditures | EUR 152,700,000 |
| Debt | EUR 1,341,500,000 |
| Cash | EUR 1,216,900,000 |
| Working capital | EUR -158,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 244,222,658 |