KeyCorp
KeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. It operates in two segments, Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank. The company offers various deposits and investment products; perso…
KeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. It operates in two segments, Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank. The company offers various deposits and investment products; personal finance and financial wellness, lending, student loan refinancing, mortgage and home equity, credit card, treasury, and business advisory; commercial leasing, investment management, consumer finance; and wealth management and investment services for institutional, non-profit, and high-net-worth clients. It also provides lending, cash management, equipment financing, and commercial mortgage loans; and capital market products and services, such as syndicated finance, debt and equity underwriting, fixed income and equity sales and trading, derivatives, foreign exchange, mergers and acquisition, other advisory services, and public finance to large corporate and institutional clients. In addition, the company offers personal and institutional trust custody services, personal financial and planning services, access to mutual funds, treasury services, and international banking services. Further, it provides community development financing, securities underwriting, brokerage, and investment banking services, as well as merchant services. The company was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.Looks overvalued
Other models: USD 28.33–42.81 (median 40.17). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Banks and insurers earn their money on their balance sheet, so value follows book value and how much the company earns on it (return on equity).
Details and the full model are below.
Market price above modeled range
Justified P/B (ROE) using TTM through 30 Sep 2026 net income and book equity: return on equity of 7.4% gives a fair price-to-book of 0.69x, with 2.4% growth (capped at the terminal rate) and 9.6% discount. The range varies growth and discount by 1 percentage point; it is illustrative, not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 5.28%, discount rate 9.60%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 5.3% (sector default 5.4%, own revenue history 0.8%, analyst revenue consensus 7.5%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 8.2% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 7.5% a year; the growth assumption used is 5.3%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Banks and insurers earn their money on their balance sheet, so value follows book value and how much the company earns on it (return on equity).
Compare models- Recommended: Justified P/B (ROE) — USD 11.62 (-44.0%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 28.33 (+36.5%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 42.81 (+106.2%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 40.17 (+93.5%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 42.81 (+106.2%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 42.71 (+105.7%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 68.52 (+230.1%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 10.91 | -90.3% |
| Base USD 11.62 | -78.7% |
| Bull USD 12.87 | -61.4% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 86 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 4 of 5 years profitable | 16 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +9.7% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net cash | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 19% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Financials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEY (this company) | USD 20.76 | -78.7% | 10.4 | 1.2 | 4.7% | 86 |
| PSH.L Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. | GBP 38.44 | 68.5% | 3.6 | 0.6 | 1.3% | 76 |
| LRE.L Lancashire Holdings Limited | GBP 6.88 | 45.6% | 7.1 | 1.6 | 3.3% | 76 |
| ACA.PA Credit Agricole S.A. | EUR 15.73 | 36.6% | 6.7 | 0.7 | 7.0% | 78 |
| V Visa Inc. | USD 414.00 | 34.6% | 8.7 | – | 0.2% | 100 |
| PRU.L Prudential plc | GBP 9.24 | 34.2% | 8.0 | 1.6 | 1.9% | 78 |
| AGS.BR ageas SA/NV | EUR 76.95 | 33.0% | 8.1 | 1.5 | 5.0% | 76 |
| NWG.L NatWest Group plc | GBP 5.86 | 30.3% | 8.2 | 1.3 | 5.0% | 88 |
| ACGL Arch Capital Group | USD 108.49 | 30.3% | 8.5 | 1.6 | 0.1% | 100 |
| Peer median | 8.1 | 1.5 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 0.82 per share · yield 3.95% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 0.615 |
| 2025 | 0.820 |
| 2024 | 0.820 |
| 2023 | 0.820 |
| 2022 | 0.790 |
| 2021 | 0.750 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 14:12
| Revenue | USD 10,524,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 2,031,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 2,028,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 2,120,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 1,516,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 121,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 16,658,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 37,851,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD -106,140,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 1,064,266,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 0.9687 |