Paccar
PACCAR Inc designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks in the United States, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Europe, Central and South America, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Truck, Parts, and Financial Services. The Truck segment desi…
PACCAR Inc designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks in the United States, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Europe, Central and South America, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Truck, Parts, and Financial Services. The Truck segment designs, manufactures, and distributes trucks for the over-the-road and off-highway hauling of commercial and consumer goods; and diesel engine products. It sells its trucks through a network of independent dealers under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF nameplates. The Parts segment distributes aftermarket parts for trucks and related commercial vehicles. The Financial Services segment conducts full-service leasing operations under the PacLease trade name, as well as provides finance and leasing products and services to customers and dealers. This segment offers equipment financing and administrative support services for its franchisees; retail loan and leasing services for small, medium, and large commercial trucking companies, as well as independent owners/operators and other businesses; and truck inventory financing services to independent dealers. In addition, this segment offers loans and leases directly to customers for the acquisition of trucks and related equipment; and operates its own full-service lease outlets. The company manufactures and markets industrial winches under the Braden, Carco, and Gearmatic nameplates. PACCAR Inc was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.Looks overvalued
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF agrees.
Other models: USD 51.73–78.33 (median 73.63). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price above modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using TTM through 30 Sep 2026 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 3% growth, 2.7% terminal growth, and 10% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 3% (limited from 7.02% because the latest annual revenue declined), discount rate 10%, terminal growth 2.70%. See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 7.0% (sector default 6.2%, own revenue history 4.9%, analyst revenue consensus 8.5%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 8.5% a year; the growth assumption used is 3.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 52.54 (-49.7%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 73.63 (-29.5%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 52.54 (-49.7%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 51.73 (-50.5%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 78.33 (-25.0%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 52.50 (-49.8%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 170.02 (+62.7%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 36.48 | -186.5% |
| Base USD 52.54 | -98.9% |
| Bull USD 81.11 | -28.8% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 104.50 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.7%, discount 10.0%).
Compare: the market implies 17.8% a year, this model assumes 3.0%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.0% | 62.15 | 50.80 | 42.55 | 36.28 | 31.36 |
| 1.0% | 69.00 | 56.46 | 47.36 | 40.45 | 35.02 |
| 3.0% | 76.37 | 62.56 | 52.54 | 44.92 | 38.95 |
| 5.0% | 84.32 | 69.13 | 58.10 | 49.74 | 43.17 |
| 7.0% | 92.86 | 76.18 | 64.08 | 54.90 | 47.70 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 74 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue -0.2% a year | 4 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 1.4x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 14% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Industrials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCAR (this company) | USD 104.50 | -98.9% | 20.0 | 2.6 | 1.3% | 74 |
| EZJ.L easyJet plc | GBP 6.88 | 74.3% | 10.6 | 1.5 | 1.7% | 78 |
| WAWI.OL Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA | NOK 160.80 | 64.7% | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.3% | 100 |
| IAG.L International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. | GBP 4.37 | 58.9% | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.8% | 92 |
| TPK.L Travis Perkins plc | GBP 6.54 | 54.7% | – | 0.8 | 2.1% | 46 |
| SRP.L Serco Group plc | GBP 2.77 | 46.2% | 19.7 | 3.3 | 1.5% | 82 |
| DFDS.CO DFDS A/S | DKK 157.30 | 45.9% | – | 0.6 | – | 64 |
| DG.PA VINCI SA | EUR 111.75 | 42.2% | 12.9 | 2.1 | 4.2% | 90 |
| HAFNI.OL Hafnia Limited | NOK 89.00 | 40.8% | 7.2 | 1.8 | 1.2% | 100 |
| Peer median | 9.3 | 1.9 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 2.76 per share · yield 2.64% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 1.030 |
| 2025 | 2.720 |
| 2024 | 4.170 |
| 2023 | 4.240 |
| 2022 | 2.793 |
| 2021 | 1.893 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 12:42
| Revenue | USD 28,538,300,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 3,907,800,000 |
| EBIT | USD 3,282,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 2,761,700,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 2,335,700,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 1,328,900,000 |
| Debt | USD 14,959,100,000 |
| Cash | USD 9,399,700,000 |
| Working capital | USD 24,091,100,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 527,700,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 1.3600 |