Pinnacle West Capital
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation, through its subsidiary, provides retail and wholesale electric services in the state of Arizona. The company engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity using nuclear, gas, oil, coal, and solar generating facilities. Its transmission f…
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation, through its subsidiary, provides retail and wholesale electric services in the state of Arizona. The company engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity using nuclear, gas, oil, coal, and solar generating facilities. Its transmission facilities include overhead lines and underground lines; and distribution facilities consist of overhead lines and underground primary cables. The company also owns and maintains substations, including transmission and distribution yards; and owns energy storage facilities. Pinnacle West Capital Corporation was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.Looks overvalued
Other models: USD 83.12–84.91 (median 84.02). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price above modeled range
Uses reported dividends of USD 3.5094 per share from TTM through 30 Sep 2026, with 2.2% perpetual growth (base growth capped at the terminal rate) and 8.6% discount rates. The range varies growth and discount assumptions by 1 percentage point; it is illustrative, not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 6.33%, discount rate 8.60%, terminal growth 2.20% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 6.3% (sector default 4.0%, own revenue history 7.3%, analyst revenue consensus 7.0%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 7.2% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 7.0% a year; the growth assumption used is 6.3%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.
Compare models- Recommended: Dividend discount model — USD 56.04 (-45.2%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 84.91 (-17.0%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: free cash flow is zero or negative.
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FCFF (steady state)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: free cash flow is zero or negative.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 83.12 (-18.8%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: free cash flow is zero or negative.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 287.55 (+181.0%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 42.28 | -142.0% |
| Base USD 56.04 | -82.6% |
| Bull USD 82.31 | -24.3% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 102.33 the market implies perpetual dividend growth of about this rate (discount rate 8.6%).
Compare: the market implies 5.0% a year, this model assumes 2.2%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Dividend discount model value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price. Dividend growth cannot exceed the long-run rate, so duplicate capped scenarios are omitted.
| Growth \ Discount | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.8% | 41.03 | 36.66 | 33.14 | 30.23 | 27.79 |
| 0.2% | 54.94 | 47.52 | 41.86 | 37.41 | 33.81 |
| 2.2% | 81.51 | 66.42 | 56.04 | 48.47 | 42.70 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 60 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 0 of 5 years | 0 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +7.2% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 7.5x EBITDA | 0 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 40% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Utilities
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PNW (this company) | USD 102.33 | -82.6% | 19.2 | 1.7 | 3.4% | 60 |
| ED Consolidated Edison | USD 119.93 | 30.7% | 20.0 | 1.7 | 2.7% | 78 |
| ENGI.PA Engie SA | EUR 23.81 | 16.6% | 15.8 | 1.8 | 7.5% | 76 |
| D Dominion Energy | USD 68.26 | -3.4% | 22.2 | 2.0 | 3.9% | 76 |
| FORTUM.HE Fortum Oyj | EUR 23.13 | -3.5% | 25.7 | 2.6 | 6.1% | 72 |
| CMS CMS Energy | USD 68.66 | -3.5% | 24.7 | 2.2 | 3.3% | 64 |
| CNA.L Centrica plc | GBP 1.50 | -5.9% | – | 2.3 | 3.3% | 92 |
| EIX Edison International | USD 59.61 | -8.9% | 6.3 | 1.3 | 5.7% | 52 |
| NTGY.MC Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. | EUR 29.30 | -9.7% | 14.0 | 3.0 | 5.9% | 70 |
| Peer median | 20.0 | 2.1 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 3.66 per share · yield 3.57% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 3.655 |
| 2025 | 3.595 |
| 2024 | 3.535 |
| 2023 | 3.475 |
| 2022 | 3.415 |
| 2021 | 3.340 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 05 Nov 2026 16:06
| Revenue | USD 5,706,259,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 2,274,244,000 |
| EBIT | USD 1,259,566,000 |
| Net income | USD 661,137,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD -931,926,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 2,761,147,000 |
| Debt | USD 16,966,884,000 |
| Cash | USD 11,124,000 |
| Working capital | USD -865,712,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 124,339,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 3.5094 |