Axfood AB
About the company
Axfood AB (publ) engages in the food retail and wholesale businesses primarily in Sweden. The company operates through five segments: Willys, Hemköp, City Gross, Snabbgross, and Dagab. The company sells groceries through Willys, HANDLAR'N, Hemköp, and Eurocash, City Gross, and Tempo store chains. It is also involved in the e-commerce business; and provision of private label products. In addition, it operates Urban Deli, a combination of restaurant, store, and market hall; Apohem, an online retail pharmacy; Matöppet, a personal grocery store and the retailer-owned mini-mart; Snabbgross, a restaurant; and Tempo, a mini-mart format of retailer-owned stores. The company serves restaurants, fast food operators, and cafés; and retailer-owned stores, mini-marts, and other convenience retailers. Axfood AB (publ) was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden. Axfood AB (publ) operates as a subsidiary of Axretail AB.
Price below modeled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
The range depends on model assumptions and data; it is not a prediction or investment advice.
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Market price below modeled range
Showing the EV/Sales (Rule of 40) you selected on the company card, using 5.08% growth, 2.4% terminal growth and 9.2% discount. The range varies these assumptions slightly; it is illustrative, not investment advice. Low confidence: the modelled value is far from the market price, which usually means the model does not capture this company well (for example expected growth well above its history).
Assumptions: growth 5.08%, discount rate 9.20%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 5.1% (sector default 5.3%, own revenue history 6.7%, analyst revenue consensus 4.2%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 4.2% a year; the growth assumption used is 5.1%.
Adjust assumptions
Show the recommended model instead
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — SEK 308.07 (+8.6%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— SEK 171.25 (-39.7%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— SEK 308.07 (+8.6%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— SEK 266.73 (-6.0%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— SEK 353.54 (+24.6%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— SEK 306.63 (+8.0%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— SEK 1061.75 (+274.1%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear SEK 777.84 | 63.5% |
| Base SEK 1061.75 | 73.3% |
| Bull SEK 1345.67 | 78.9% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
3 months price change: +22.13% · SEK 283.80 · Market data through 06 Nov 2026 ; dashed line is today’s model base value (SEK 1061.75). The fair value is today’s estimate, not what the model said in the past.
Saved price history is current through 06 Nov 2026; last refreshed 06 Nov 2026 18:14 (2 hours, 23 minutes ago).
10 Aug 2026Range SEK 230.22 – 290.0006 Nov 2026
Latest news
Headlines provided by EODHD. Articles may mention multiple companies and are not investment recommendations.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 70 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +5.3% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 2.1x EBITDA | 10 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 9% | 0 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Staples
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXFO.ST (this company) | SEK 283.80 | 7.9% | 25.0 | 8.2 | 3.1% | 70 |
| ORK.OL Orkla ASA | NOK 102.60 | 31.9% | 14.6 | 2.3 | 9.7% | 82 |
| WN.TO George Weston Limited | CAD 109.72 | 26.2% | 39.8 | 9.1 | 1.2% | 72 |
| KHC Kraft Heinz | USD 25.32 | 25.2% | – | 0.8 | 6.3% | 36 |
| CA.PA Carrefour SA | EUR 13.64 | 23.8% | 29.2 | 0.8 | 8.7% | 72 |
| ABF.L Associated British Foods plc | GBP 19.90 | 18.8% | 15.1 | 1.2 | 3.2% | 82 |
| ADM Archer Daniels Midland | USD 70.47 | 16.8% | 13.7 | 1.4 | 3.0% | 64 |
| DLTR Dollar Tree | USD 137.94 | 0.3% | 16.3 | 7.7 | – | 72 |
| CCH.L Coca-Cola HBC AG | GBP 41.88 | -2.5% | 19.7 | 4.7 | 2.0% | 90 |
| Peer median | 16.3 | 1.9 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: SEK 9.00 per share · yield 3.17% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 9.000 |
| 2025 | 8.750 |
| 2024 | 8.500 |
| 2023 | 8.150 |
| 2022 | 7.716 |
| 2021 | 7.437 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 19:56
| Revenue | SEK 90,334,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | SEK 7,724,000,000 |
| EBIT | SEK 3,588,000,000 |
| Net income | SEK 2,466,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | SEK 4,905,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | SEK 1,604,000,000 |
| Debt | SEK 16,334,000,000 |
| Cash | SEK 309,000,000 |
| Working capital | SEK -4,545,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 216,843,240 |