Carrefour SA
Carrefour SA operates as a food retailer in France, Spain, Belgium, Poland, Romania, Brazil, Argentina, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and internationally. The company operates hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience stores, club stores, and cash and carry stores; soft discount stores; and e-commer…
Carrefour SA operates as a food retailer in France, Spain, Belgium, Poland, Romania, Brazil, Argentina, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and internationally. The company operates hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience stores, club stores, and cash and carry stores; soft discount stores; and e-commerce sites. It is also involved in the provision of financial services; banking and insurance services; property development; travel ticketing and leisure; agency; shopping mall rental; and franchise activities. Carrefour SA was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Massy, France.Looks undervalued
Other models: EUR 7.03–68.66 (median 31.33). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price below modeled range
Uses reported dividends of EUR 1.1890 per share from Fiscal year 2025, with 2.4% perpetual growth (base growth capped at the terminal rate) and 9.2% discount rates. The range varies growth and discount assumptions by 1 percentage point; it is illustrative, not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 3.64%, discount rate 9.20%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 3.6% (sector default 5.3%, own revenue history 4.0%, analyst revenue consensus 2.6%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 11.0% a year (Medium confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 2.6% a year; the growth assumption used is 3.6%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.
Compare models- Recommended: Dividend discount model — EUR 17.90 (+31.8%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— EUR 7.03 (-48.2%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— EUR 33.78 (+148.6%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 6.4x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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FCFF (steady state)
— EUR 31.33 (+130.5%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 6.4x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— EUR 68.66 (+405.2%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— EUR 33.69 (+147.9%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 6.4x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— EUR 212.96 (+1467.0%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear EUR 13.70 | 0.8% |
| Base EUR 17.90 | 24.1% |
| Bull EUR 25.61 | 46.9% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At EUR 13.59 the market implies perpetual dividend growth of about this rate (discount rate 9.2%).
Compare: the market implies 0.4% a year, this model assumes 2.4%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
How the Dividend discount model value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price. Dividend growth cannot exceed the long-run rate, so duplicate capped scenarios are omitted.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.6% | 13.30 | 11.94 | 10.83 | 9.92 | 9.14 |
| 0.4% | 17.56 | 15.30 | 13.57 | 12.18 | 11.05 |
| 2.4% | 25.37 | 20.99 | 17.90 | 15.61 | 13.84 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
5 years price change: +10.86% · EUR 13.64 · Market data through 05 Nov 2026 ; dashed line is today’s model base value (EUR 17.90). The fair value is today’s estimate, not what the model said in the past.
Saved price history is current through 05 Nov 2026; last refreshed 06 Nov 2026 08:12 (4 hours, 22 minutes ago).
03 Jan 2022Range EUR 10.71 – 16.8105 Nov 2026
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 72 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +4.0% a year | 12 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 2.0x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 6% | 0 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Staples
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA.PA (this company) | EUR 13.59 | 24.1% | 29.1 | 0.8 | 8.7% | 72 |
| ORK.OL Orkla ASA | NOK 103.30 | 31.4% | 14.7 | 2.4 | 9.7% | 82 |
| WN.TO George Weston Limited | CAD 109.72 | 26.2% | 39.8 | 9.1 | 1.2% | 72 |
| KHC Kraft Heinz | USD 25.32 | 25.2% | – | 0.8 | 6.3% | 36 |
| ABF.L Associated British Foods plc | GBP 19.83 | 19.1% | 15.0 | 1.2 | 3.2% | 82 |
| ADM Archer Daniels Midland | USD 70.47 | 16.8% | 13.7 | 1.4 | 3.0% | 64 |
| AXFO.ST Axfood AB | SEK 281.90 | 8.5% | 24.8 | 8.1 | 3.1% | 70 |
| GIS General Mills | USD 36.46 | 3.4% | – | 2.6 | 6.7% | 52 |
| DLTR Dollar Tree | USD 137.94 | 0.3% | 16.3 | 7.7 | – | 72 |
| Peer median | 15.7 | 2.5 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: EUR 1.18 per share · yield 8.68% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 1.180 |
| 2025 | 1.150 |
| 2024 | 0.870 |
| 2023 | 0.560 |
| 2022 | 0.520 |
| 2021 | 0.480 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · EODHD annual statements · period ended 31 Dec 2025
| Revenue | EUR 84,024,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | EUR 4,672,000,000 |
| EBIT | EUR 2,323,000,000 |
| Net income | EUR 319,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | EUR 2,030,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | EUR 1,523,000,000 |
| Debt | EUR 15,592,000,000 |
| Cash | EUR 6,420,000,000 |
| Working capital | EUR -3,321,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 682,937,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | EUR 1.1890 |