AAK.ST

AAK AB

AAK AB (publ.) develops and sells plant-based oils and fats in Sweden and internationally. It operates through Food Ingredients, Chocolate & Confectionery Fats, and Technical Products & Feed segments. The company offers food ingredients for chocolate and confectionery; dairy and ice cream; bakery; … AAK AB (publ.) develops and sells plant-based oils and fats in Sweden and internationally. It operates through Food Ingredients, Chocolate & Confectionery Fats, and Technical Products & Feed segments. The company offers food ingredients for chocolate and confectionery; dairy and ice cream; bakery; lecithin; special nutrition; foodservice and retail; personal care; candles; technical products; and animal nutrition. It also provides natural emulsifiers; fatty acids; plant-based candle waxes; and animal feed, proteins, and fats products. AAK AB (publ.) was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.
Market price
SEK 181.70
Within modeled range
Base value (Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)) is 9.4% below the market price
5-year outlook: 9.5% per year · forecast
Data: Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; TTM through 30 Sep 2026, period ended 30 Sep 2026 from EODHD (downloaded 1 min ago). Next earnings: 05 Feb 2027 (in 91 days)
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Verdict

Priced within the modelled range

PriceSEK 181.70
Fair value range100.39–294.80base 164.69
Estimate reliabilityHigh
5-year outlook9.5% / yr≈ SEK 286.55 in 5 yrs

Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.

Start with the price and fair value range, then review the data dates and assumptions below. Estimates are not predictions or investment advice.

Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)

Market price within modeled range

Showing the Fade DCF (10-year growth fade) you selected on the company card, using 4.41% growth, 2.4% terminal growth and 9.2% discount. The range varies these assumptions slightly; it is illustrative, not investment advice.

Assumptions: growth 4.41%, discount rate 9.20%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.

Blended growth assumption: 4.4% (sector default 5.3%, own revenue history -3.0%, analyst revenue consensus 7.7%).

5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 9.5% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.

Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 7.7% a year; the growth assumption used is 4.4%.

Adjust assumptions

Show the recommended model instead

Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.

Compare models
  • Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — SEK 165.21 (-9.1%)
  • EPS-based Gordon proxy — SEK 204.91 (+12.8%)
    Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
  • DCF (trailing free cash flow) — SEK 165.21 (-9.1%)
    Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
  • FCFF (steady state) — SEK 150.53 (-17.2%)
    Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
  • EV/EBITDA (12x) — SEK 238.69 (+31.4%)
    Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
  • Fade DCF (10-year growth fade) — SEK 164.69 (-9.4%)
    Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
  • EV/Sales (Rule of 40) — SEK 561.79 (+209.2%)
    Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
Illustrative range / share SEK 100.39–294.80
Base scenario / share SEK 164.69
Margin of safety (share of value) Priced for base-to-bull outcomes
Bear SEK 100.39-81.0%
Base SEK 164.69-10.3%
Bull SEK 294.8038.4%

Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.

Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.

Price history and fair value

1 year price change: -29.05% · SEK 182.60 · Market data through 06 Nov 2026 ; dashed line is today’s model base value (SEK 164.69). The fair value is today’s estimate, not what the model said in the past.

Saved price history is current through 06 Nov 2026; last refreshed 06 Nov 2026 18:14 (0 minutes ago).

06 Nov 2025Range SEK 174.50 – 268.1506 Nov 2026

Latest news

Headlines provided by EODHD. Articles may mention multiple companies and are not investment recommendations.

More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials

Quality score: 66 / 100

Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.

Profitability5 of 5 years profitable20 / 20
Cash generationfree cash flow positive in 3 of 5 years12 / 20
Growthrevenue -2.3% a year4 / 20
Balance sheetnet debt 0.6x EBITDA20 / 20
MarginsEBITDA margin 12%10 / 20

Peers in Consumer Staples

Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.

CompanyPriceMargin of safetyP/EP/BYieldQuality
AAK.ST (this company) SEK 181.70 -10.0% 13.4 2.2 2.8% 66
ORK.OL Orkla ASA NOK 102.30 32.1% 14.5 2.3 9.8% 82
KHC Kraft Heinz USD 24.46 27.8% – 0.8 6.5% 36
WN.TO George Weston Limited CAD 109.72 26.2% 39.8 9.1 1.2% 72
CA.PA Carrefour SA EUR 13.49 24.7% 28.9 0.8 8.8% 72
ABF.L Associated British Foods plc GBP 19.60 20.0% 14.9 1.2 3.2% 82
ADM Archer Daniels Midland USD 70.55 16.7% 13.8 1.4 3.0% 64
AXFO.ST Axfood AB SEK 283.20 8.1% 24.9 8.2 3.1% 70
DLTR Dollar Tree USD 135.65 1.9% 16.1 7.6 – 72
Peer median 16.1 1.9

Dividends

Paid in the last 12 months: SEK 5.50 per share · yield 3.03% at the current price.

YearDividends per share
2026 (so far)5.500
20255.000
20243.700
20232.750
20222.500
20212.300
Sector Consumer Staples
Exchange Nasdaq Stockholm
Currency SEK

Trailing 12-month financials

TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 18:14

RevenueSEK 45,976,000,000
EBITDASEK 5,462,000,000
EBITSEK 4,613,000,000
Net incomeSEK 3,548,000,000
Free cash flowSEK 2,826,000,000
Capital expendituresSEK 1,434,000,000
DebtSEK 5,259,000,000
CashSEK 1,954,000,000
Working capitalSEK 12,788,000,000
Shares outstanding260,747,663