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ALMB.CO

Alm. Brand A/S

Alm. Brand A/S, together with its subsidiaries, provides non-life insurance products and services in Denmark. It offers car, travel, home, contents, accident, and holiday home insurance; as well as salary security, dog, health, change of ownership, seller's liability, veteran vehicle, motorcycle, m… Alm. Brand A/S, together with its subsidiaries, provides non-life insurance products and services in Denmark. It offers car, travel, home, contents, accident, and holiday home insurance; as well as salary security, dog, health, change of ownership, seller's liability, veteran vehicle, motorcycle, moped, boat, youth, drone, horse, caravan, and child accident insurance. In addition, the company provides business, workers' compensation, professional liability, electric car, truck, construction, building, and cyber insurance. Further, it offers other direct insurance products to private households, agricultural, small and medium-sized enterprises, and corporates through its sales channels and partnerships. The company was founded in 1792 and is headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Market price
DKK 17.32
Within modeled range
Base value (DCF (trailing free cash flow)) is 6.2% above the market price
5-year outlook: 4.4% per year · forecast
Data: Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; TTM through 30 Sep 2026, period ended 30 Sep 2026 from EODHD (downloaded 2 min ago). Next earnings: 28 Jan 2027 (in 83 days)
Forecast Compare Investment journal
Verdict

Priced within the modelled range

PriceDKK 17.32
Fair value range11.14–32.66base 18.39
Estimate reliabilityHigh
5-year outlook4.4% / yr≈ DKK 21.53 in 5 yrs

Why: Banks and insurers earn their money on their balance sheet, so value follows book value and how much the company earns on it (return on equity).

Details and the full model are below.

DCF (trailing free cash flow)

Market price within modeled range

Showing the DCF (trailing free cash flow) you selected on the company card, using 3% growth, 2.4% terminal growth and 9.6% discount. The range varies these assumptions slightly; it is illustrative, not investment advice.

Assumptions: growth 3% (limited from 5.90% because the latest annual revenue declined), discount rate 9.60%, terminal growth 2.40%. See a worked example.

Blended growth assumption: 5.9% (sector default 5.4%, own revenue history 8.8%, analyst revenue consensus 4.7%).

5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 4.4% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.

Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 4.7% a year; the growth assumption used is 3.0%.

Adjust assumptions

Show the recommended model instead

Why this model: Banks and insurers earn their money on their balance sheet, so value follows book value and how much the company earns on it (return on equity).

Compare models
  • Recommended: Justified P/B (ROE) — DKK 7.42 (-57.2%)
  • EPS-based Gordon proxy — DKK 10.30 (-40.5%)
    Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
  • DCF (trailing free cash flow) — DKK 18.39 (+6.2%)
    Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
  • FCFF (steady state) — DKK 17.89 (+3.3%)
    Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
  • EV/EBITDA (12x) — DKK 10.94 (-36.8%)
    Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
  • Fade DCF (10-year growth fade) — DKK 18.37 (+6.1%)
    Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
  • EV/Sales (Rule of 40) — DKK 24.72 (+42.7%)
    Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
Illustrative range / share DKK 11.14–32.66
Base scenario / share DKK 18.39
Margin of safety (share of value) Margin of safety vs base case
Bear DKK 11.14-55.5%
Base DKK 18.395.8%
Bull DKK 32.6647.0%

Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.

Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.

Price history and fair value

No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.

More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials

Quality score: 90 / 100

Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.

Profitability5 of 5 years profitable20 / 20
Cash generationfree cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years20 / 20
Growthrevenue +5.6% a year20 / 20
Balance sheetnet debt 1.1x EBITDA20 / 20
MarginsEBITDA margin 10%10 / 20

Peers in Financials

Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.

CompanyPriceMargin of safetyP/EP/BYieldQuality
ALMB.CO (this company) DKK 17.32 -133.4% 23.9 2.2 3.5% 90
PSH.L Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. GBP 38.44 68.5% 3.6 0.6 1.3% 76
LRE.L Lancashire Holdings Limited GBP 6.88 45.6% 7.1 1.6 3.3% 76
ACA.PA Credit Agricole S.A. EUR 15.73 36.6% 6.7 0.7 7.0% 78
V Visa Inc. USD 414.00 34.6% 8.7 – 0.2% 100
PRU.L Prudential plc GBP 9.24 34.2% 8.0 1.6 1.9% 78
AGS.BR ageas SA/NV EUR 76.95 33.0% 8.1 1.5 5.0% 76
NWG.L NatWest Group plc GBP 5.86 30.3% 8.2 1.3 5.0% 88
ACGL Arch Capital Group USD 108.49 30.3% 8.5 1.6 0.1% 100
Peer median 8.1 1.5

Dividends

Paid in the last 12 months: DKK 0.66 per share · yield 3.81% at the current price.

YearDividends per share
2026 (so far)0.660
20250.600
20240.550
20230.300
20220.300
20212.940
Sector Financials
Exchange Nasdaq Copenhagen
Currency DKK

Trailing 12-month financials

TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 16:50

RevenueDKK 13,185,000,000
EBITDADKK 1,366,000,000
EBITDKK 1,347,000,000
Net incomeDKK 990,000,000
Free cash flowDKK 1,821,000,000
Capital expendituresDKK 134,000,000
DebtDKK 1,671,000,000
CashDKK 234,000,000
Working capitalDKK
Shares outstanding1,367,000,000