Banco BPM S.p.A.
Financials company listed on Borsa Italiana. Business description not available yet.
Priced within the modelled range
Why: Banks, insurers and other financials are valued on the dividends they pay, not on free cash flow.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Uses reported dividends of EUR 1.0600 per share from Fiscal year 2025, with 2.4% perpetual growth (base growth capped at the terminal rate) and 9.6% discount rates. The range varies growth and discount assumptions by 1 percentage point; it is illustrative, not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 3% (limited from 6.47% because the latest annual revenue declined), discount rate 9.60%, terminal growth 2.40%. See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 6.5% (sector default 5.4%, own revenue history 12.2%, analyst revenue consensus 4.1%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 11.8% a year (Medium confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 4.1% a year; the growth assumption used is 3.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Banks, insurers and other financials are valued on the dividends they pay, not on free cash flow.
Compare models- Recommended: Dividend discount model — EUR 15.08 (+10.4%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— EUR 19.70 (+44.3%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: free cash flow is zero or negative.
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FCFF (steady state)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: free cash flow is zero or negative.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: EBITDA is missing, zero or negative.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: free cash flow is zero or negative.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: revenue is missing.
| Bear EUR 11.68 | -16.8% |
| Base EUR 15.08 | 9.5% |
| Bull EUR 21.08 | 35.2% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At EUR 13.65 the market implies perpetual dividend growth of about this rate (discount rate 9.6%).
Compare: the market implies 1.7% a year, this model assumes 2.4%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
How the Dividend discount model value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price. Dividend growth cannot exceed the long-run rate, so duplicate capped scenarios are omitted.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 11.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.6% | 11.34 | 10.23 | 9.31 | 8.55 | 7.90 |
| 0.4% | 14.78 | 12.98 | 11.57 | 10.43 | 9.50 |
| 2.4% | 20.87 | 17.51 | 15.08 | 13.24 | 11.80 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 75 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 4 of 4 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 1 of 4 years | 5 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +12.2% a year | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Financials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAMI.MI (this company) | EUR 13.65 | 9.5% | 9.9 | – | 7.8% | 75 |
| PSH.L Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. | GBP 38.44 | 68.5% | 3.7 | 0.6 | 1.3% | 76 |
| LRE.L Lancashire Holdings Limited | GBP 6.88 | 45.6% | 7.1 | 1.6 | 3.3% | 76 |
| ACA.PA Credit Agricole S.A. | EUR 15.73 | 36.6% | 6.7 | 0.7 | 7.0% | 78 |
| V Visa Inc. | USD 414.00 | 34.6% | 8.7 | – | 0.2% | 100 |
| PRU.L Prudential plc | GBP 9.24 | 34.2% | 8.0 | 1.6 | 1.9% | 78 |
| AGS.BR ageas SA/NV | EUR 76.95 | 33.0% | 8.1 | 1.5 | 5.0% | 76 |
| NWG.L NatWest Group plc | GBP 5.86 | 30.3% | 8.2 | 1.3 | 5.0% | 88 |
| ACGL Arch Capital Group | USD 108.49 | 30.3% | 8.5 | 1.6 | 0.1% | 100 |
| Peer median | 8.1 | 1.5 | ||||
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · Yahoo Finance annual statements · period ended 31 Dec 2025
| Revenue | EUR 6,639,492,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | EUR |
| EBIT | EUR |
| Net income | EUR 2,081,987,000 |
| Free cash flow | EUR -4,055,161,000 |
| Capital expenditures | EUR -512,749,000 |
| Debt | EUR 28,700,022,000 |
| Cash | EUR 7,414,371,000 |
| Working capital | EUR |
| Shares outstanding | 1,503,373,604 |
| Reported dividends per share | EUR 1.0600 |