BPER Banca S.p.A.
Financials company listed on Borsa Italiana. Business description not available yet.
Priced within the modelled range
Other models: EUR 15.49–16.93 (median 16.21). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Banks, insurers and other financials are valued on the dividends they pay, not on free cash flow.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Uses reported dividends of EUR 0.7000 per share from Fiscal year 2025, with 2.4% perpetual growth (base growth capped at the terminal rate) and 9.6% discount rates. The range varies growth and discount assumptions by 1 percentage point; it is illustrative, not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 6.54%, discount rate 9.60%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 6.5% (sector default 5.4%, own revenue history 17.4%, analyst revenue consensus 1.7%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 9.8% a year (Medium confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 1.7% a year; the growth assumption used is 6.5%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Banks, insurers and other financials are valued on the dividends they pay, not on free cash flow.
Compare models- Recommended: Dividend discount model — EUR 9.96 (-23.4%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— EUR 15.49 (+19.2%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— EUR 21.50 (+65.5%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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FCFF (steady state)
— EUR 16.93 (+30.3%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: EBITDA is missing, zero or negative.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— EUR 21.34 (+64.3%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: revenue is missing.
| Bear EUR 7.72 | -68.4% |
| Base EUR 9.96 | -30.5% |
| Bull EUR 13.92 | 6.7% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At EUR 12.99 the market implies perpetual dividend growth of about this rate (discount rate 9.6%).
Compare: the market implies 4.0% a year, this model assumes 2.4%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Dividend discount model value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price. Dividend growth cannot exceed the long-run rate, so duplicate capped scenarios are omitted.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 11.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.6% | 7.49 | 6.75 | 6.15 | 5.65 | 5.22 |
| 0.4% | 9.76 | 8.57 | 7.64 | 6.89 | 6.28 |
| 2.4% | 13.78 | 11.56 | 9.96 | 8.74 | 7.79 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 83 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 4 of 4 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 2 of 4 years | 10 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +17.4% a year | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Financials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BPE.MI (this company) | EUR 12.99 | -30.5% | 11.9 | – | 5.4% | 83 |
| PSH.L Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. | GBP 38.44 | 68.5% | 3.6 | 0.6 | 1.3% | 76 |
| LRE.L Lancashire Holdings Limited | GBP 6.88 | 45.6% | 7.1 | 1.6 | 3.3% | 76 |
| ACA.PA Credit Agricole S.A. | EUR 15.73 | 36.6% | 6.7 | 0.7 | 7.0% | 78 |
| V Visa Inc. | USD 414.00 | 34.6% | 8.7 | – | 0.2% | 100 |
| PRU.L Prudential plc | GBP 9.24 | 34.2% | 8.0 | 1.6 | 1.9% | 78 |
| AGS.BR ageas SA/NV | EUR 76.95 | 33.0% | 8.1 | 1.5 | 5.0% | 76 |
| NWG.L NatWest Group plc | GBP 5.86 | 30.3% | 8.2 | 1.3 | 5.0% | 88 |
| ACGL Arch Capital Group | USD 108.49 | 30.3% | 8.5 | 1.6 | 0.1% | 100 |
| Peer median | 8.1 | 1.5 | ||||
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · Yahoo Finance annual statements · period ended 31 Dec 2025
| Revenue | EUR 6,973,747,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | EUR |
| EBIT | EUR |
| Net income | EUR 1,818,447,000 |
| Free cash flow | EUR 2,809,612,000 |
| Capital expenditures | EUR -312,321,000 |
| Debt | EUR 24,870,464,000 |
| Cash | EUR 13,176,269,000 |
| Working capital | EUR |
| Shares outstanding | 1,669,831,956 |
| Reported dividends per share | EUR 0.7000 |