Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Amplifon S.p.A. (AMP.MI)

Price update date unknown; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 04 Nov 2026 15:22.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 11.17. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 22.7% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 21.1%, net 3.8%, free cash flow 12.4% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 4.1 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
Starting growth was capped from 22.7% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (40.8%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 11.45Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range EUR 6.91 to EUR 19.34
2%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value; free cash flow is more than 2x earnings, so the cash-flow value may be overstated.

10.3%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 5.18BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 197.52MNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 640.91MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 0.63Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 24.31Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 11.17
26.1%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

EUR 0 EUR 202.06M EUR 404.12M EUR 606.18M EUR 808.24M FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 36.6% EUR 505.10M 5.5%
Base 40.8% EUR 640.91M 8.0%
Bull 44.9% EUR 808.24M 10.6%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– EUR 2.40BEUR 506.54MEUR 91.33MEUR 296.36M 0.421.350.29n/a11.17
Year 140.8% EUR 3.37BEUR 712.95MEUR 128.55MEUR 417.12M 0.581.900.41n/a15.74
Year 221.9% EUR 4.11BEUR 868.87MEUR 156.67MEUR 508.35M 0.712.310.50n/a19.21
Year 33.0% EUR 4.23BEUR 894.74MEUR 161.33MEUR 523.48M 0.732.380.51n/a19.80
Year 43.0% EUR 4.36BEUR 921.28MEUR 166.12MEUR 539.01M 0.762.450.53n/a20.42
Year 53.0% EUR 4.49BEUR 948.51MEUR 171.03MEUR 554.94M 0.782.520.54n/a21.05
Year 62.9% EUR 4.62BEUR 976.44MEUR 176.06MEUR 571.28M 0.802.600.56n/a21.67
Year 72.9% EUR 4.75BEUR 1.01BEUR 181.23MEUR 588.04M 0.822.670.58n/a22.30
Year 82.9% EUR 4.89BEUR 1.03BEUR 186.52MEUR 605.23M 0.852.750.59n/a22.95
Year 92.9% EUR 5.03BEUR 1.06BEUR 191.95MEUR 622.85M 0.872.830.61n/a23.62
Year 102.9% EUR 5.18BEUR 1.10BEUR 197.52MEUR 640.91M 0.902.910.63n/a24.31

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.