Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Carnival Corporation (CCL)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; TTM through 31 Aug 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 14:08.

Starts from TTM through 31 Aug 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 29.59. Growth begins at 13.4% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.1% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 26.3%, net 11.4%, free cash flow 11.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (3.2%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 29.82Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 17.96 to USD 50.33
1%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

6.8%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 52.93BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 6.02BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 6.09BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 56.87Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 29.59
15.1%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

-USD 7.72B -USD 3.68B USD 348.39M USD 4.38B USD 8.41B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 31 Aug 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -2.8% USD 4.35B 3.2%
Base 3.2% USD 6.09B 6.7%
Bull 9.2% USD 8.41B 10.2%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 31 Aug 2026– USD 27.59BUSD 7.26BUSD 3.14BUSD 3.18B 2.292.32n/an/a29.59
Year 13.2% USD 28.46BUSD 7.49BUSD 3.24BUSD 3.28B 2.372.40n/an/a30.54
Year 27.7% USD 30.66BUSD 8.07BUSD 3.49BUSD 3.53B 2.552.58n/an/a32.90
Year 311.1% USD 34.06BUSD 8.97BUSD 3.87BUSD 3.92B 2.832.87n/an/a36.57
Year 410.0% USD 37.45BUSD 9.86BUSD 4.26BUSD 4.31B 3.113.15n/an/a40.22
Year 58.8% USD 40.75BUSD 10.73BUSD 4.63BUSD 4.69B 3.393.43n/an/a43.78
Year 67.7% USD 43.87BUSD 11.55BUSD 4.99BUSD 5.05B 3.653.69n/an/a47.14
Year 76.5% USD 46.74BUSD 12.30BUSD 5.31BUSD 5.38B 3.883.93n/an/a50.22
Year 85.4% USD 49.25BUSD 12.97BUSD 5.60BUSD 5.67B 4.094.14n/an/a52.92
Year 94.2% USD 51.34BUSD 13.52BUSD 5.84BUSD 5.91B 4.274.32n/an/a55.16
Year 103.1% USD 52.93BUSD 13.93BUSD 6.02BUSD 6.09B 4.404.45n/an/a56.87

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.