Carnival Corporation
Carnival Corporation Ltd., a cruise company, provides leisure travel services. The company operates through four segments: North America Cruise Operations, Europe Cruise Operations, Cruise Support, and Tour and Other. It operates port destinations and islands, as well as owns and operates hotels, l…
Carnival Corporation Ltd., a cruise company, provides leisure travel services. The company operates through four segments: North America Cruise Operations, Europe Cruise Operations, Cruise Support, and Tour and Other. It operates port destinations and islands, as well as owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motorcoaches. The company offers its services under the AIDA Cruises, Carnival Cruise Line, Costa Cruises, Cunard, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), P&O Cruises (UK), Princess Cruises, and Seabourn brands. It sells its cruises through travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, websites, and onboard future cruise consultants. Carnival Corporation Ltd. was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF agrees.
Other models: USD 6.74–44.09 (median 26.36). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using Fiscal year 2025 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 13.38% growth, 3.1% terminal growth, and 10.8% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 13.38%, discount rate 10.80%, terminal growth 3.10% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 13.4% (sector default 7.2%, own revenue history 40.0%, analyst revenue consensus 3.2%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 3.2% a year; the growth assumption used is 13.4%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 19.75 (-33.3%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 26.36 (-10.9%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 19.75 (-33.3%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 6.74 (-77.2%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 44.09 (+49.0%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 19.33 (-34.7%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 136.41 (+361.0%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 10.24 | -188.8% |
| Base USD 19.75 | -49.9% |
| Bull USD 36.17 | 18.2% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 29.59 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 3.1%, discount 10.8%).
Compare: the market implies 19.3% a year, this model assumes 13.4%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.4% | 25.83 | 19.11 | 14.13 | 10.31 | 7.27 |
| 11.4% | 29.64 | 22.28 | 16.84 | 12.66 | 9.35 |
| 13.4% | 33.72 | 25.68 | 19.75 | 15.18 | 11.56 |
| 15.4% | 38.08 | 29.32 | 22.85 | 17.87 | 13.93 |
| 17.4% | 42.75 | 33.21 | 26.16 | 20.74 | 16.45 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 78 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 3 of 5 years profitable | 12 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 4 of 5 years | 16 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +22.7% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 3.2x EBITDA | 10 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 26% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Discretionary
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCL (this company) | USD 29.59 | 3.9% | 12.7 | 2.8 | – | 78 |
| KGF.L Kingfisher plc | GBP 3.72 | 45.2% | 27.0 | 1.1 | 3.3% | 74 |
| BWY.L Bellway p.l.c. | GBP 23.01 | 43.6% | 14.0 | 0.8 | 3.1% | 70 |
| INCH.L Inchcape plc | GBP 6.41 | 37.3% | 9.0 | 1.9 | 4.1% | 80 |
| ZAL.DE Zalando SE | EUR 27.49 | 36.6% | 108.5 | 2.6 | – | 80 |
| DECK Deckers Brands | USD 87.74 | 34.9% | 11.2 | 5.1 | – | 100 |
| EXPE Expedia Group | USD 272.48 | 29.6% | 15.8 | 20.2 | 0.7% | 100 |
| BKNG Booking Holdings | USD 168.72 | 28.9% | 17.7 | – | 1.0% | 100 |
| PETS.L Pets at Home Group Plc | GBP 2.58 | 25.2% | 18.8 | 1.2 | 2.9% | 82 |
| Peer median | 16.8 | 1.9 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 0.60 per share · yield 2.03% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 0.600 |
| 2020 | 0.500 |
| 2019 | 0.500 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · SEC EDGAR annual filings · period ended 30 Nov 2025
| Revenue | USD 26,622,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 7,273,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 4,483,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 2,760,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 2,607,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD -3,611,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 27,383,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 1,928,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD -8,873,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 1,402,000,000 |