Carnival Corporation
Carnival Corporation Ltd., a cruise company, provides leisure travel services. The company operates through four segments: North America Cruise Operations, Europe Cruise Operations, Cruise Support, and Tour and Other. It operates port destinations and islands, as well as owns and operates hotels, l…
Carnival Corporation Ltd., a cruise company, provides leisure travel services. The company operates through four segments: North America Cruise Operations, Europe Cruise Operations, Cruise Support, and Tour and Other. It operates port destinations and islands, as well as owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motorcoaches. The company offers its services under the AIDA Cruises, Carnival Cruise Line, Costa Cruises, Cunard, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), P&O Cruises (UK), Princess Cruises, and Seabourn brands. It sells its cruises through travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, websites, and onboard future cruise consultants. Carnival Corporation Ltd. was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF agrees.
Other models: USD 13.58–46.22 (median 30.70). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using TTM through 31 Aug 2026 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 13.38% growth, 3.1% terminal growth, and 10.8% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 13.38%, discount rate 10.80%, terminal growth 3.10% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 13.4% (sector default 7.2%, own revenue history 40.0%, analyst revenue consensus 3.2%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 3.2% a year; the growth assumption used is 13.4%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 29.82 (+0.8%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 30.70 (+3.8%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 29.82 (+0.8%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 13.58 (-54.1%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 46.22 (+56.2%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 29.30 (-1.0%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 142.67 (+382.2%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 17.96 | -64.8% |
| Base USD 29.82 | 0.8% |
| Bull USD 50.33 | 41.2% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 29.59 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 3.1%, discount 10.8%).
Compare: the market implies 13.3% a year, this model assumes 13.4%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.4% | 37.42 | 29.02 | 22.81 | 18.04 | 14.25 |
| 11.4% | 42.17 | 32.99 | 26.20 | 20.98 | 16.84 |
| 13.4% | 47.27 | 37.23 | 29.82 | 24.12 | 19.60 |
| 15.4% | 52.71 | 41.78 | 33.69 | 27.48 | 22.56 |
| 17.4% | 58.54 | 46.63 | 37.83 | 31.06 | 25.71 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 78 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 3 of 5 years profitable | 12 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 4 of 5 years | 16 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +22.7% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 3.3x EBITDA | 10 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 26% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Discretionary
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCL (this company) | USD 29.59 | 0.8% | 12.9 | 2.9 | – | 78 |
| KGF.L Kingfisher plc | GBP 3.72 | 45.2% | 27.0 | 1.1 | 3.3% | 74 |
| BWY.L Bellway p.l.c. | GBP 23.01 | 43.6% | 14.0 | 0.8 | 3.1% | 70 |
| INCH.L Inchcape plc | GBP 6.41 | 37.3% | 9.0 | 1.9 | 4.1% | 80 |
| ZAL.DE Zalando SE | EUR 27.49 | 36.6% | 108.5 | 2.6 | – | 80 |
| DECK Deckers Brands | USD 87.74 | 34.9% | 11.2 | 5.1 | – | 100 |
| LULU Lululemon Athletica | USD 111.77 | 33.3% | 8.9 | 2.6 | – | 100 |
| EXPE Expedia Group | USD 272.48 | 29.6% | 15.8 | 20.2 | 0.7% | 100 |
| BKNG Booking Holdings | USD 168.72 | 28.9% | 17.7 | – | 1.0% | 100 |
| Peer median | 14.9 | 2.6 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 0.60 per share · yield 2.03% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 0.600 |
| 2020 | 0.500 |
| 2019 | 0.500 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 31 Aug 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 14:08
| Revenue | USD 27,593,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 7,264,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 4,365,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 3,137,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 3,176,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 3,645,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 25,162,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 1,220,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD -9,053,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 1,368,000,000 |