Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Centene Corporation (CNC)

Price updated 07 Nov 2026 00:03; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 07 Nov 2026 01:37.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 69.74. Growth begins at 3.4% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 1.9%, net 0.8%, free cash flow 2.0% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 5.7 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-2.4%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 126.96Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 99.50 to USD 174.72
82%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value; free cash flow is more than 2x earnings, so the cash-flow value may be overstated.

1.9%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 243.33BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 1.46BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 4.95BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 84.10Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 69.74
14.4%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

-USD 490.00M USD 1.45B USD 3.38B USD 5.32B USD 7.25B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -8.2% USD 3.52B -1.2%
Base -2.4% USD 4.95B 2.3%
Bull 3.3% USD 6.87B 5.7%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 194.69BUSD 3.78BUSD 1.46BUSD 3.96B 2.968.01n/an/a69.74
Year 1-2.4% USD 190.00BUSD 3.69BUSD 1.37BUSD 3.86B 2.777.82n/an/a68.03
Year 20.5% USD 190.86BUSD 3.71BUSD 1.32BUSD 3.88B 2.677.86n/an/a68.08
Year 33.3% USD 197.09BUSD 3.83BUSD 1.30BUSD 4.01B 2.638.11n/an/a69.80
Year 43.2% USD 203.43BUSD 3.95BUSD 1.28BUSD 4.14B 2.608.37n/an/a71.29
Year 53.2% USD 209.86BUSD 4.08BUSD 1.26BUSD 4.27B 2.558.64n/an/a72.53
Year 63.1% USD 216.38BUSD 4.20BUSD 1.30BUSD 4.40B 2.638.91n/an/a74.78
Year 73.1% USD 223.00BUSD 4.33BUSD 1.34BUSD 4.54B 2.719.18n/an/a77.07
Year 83.0% USD 229.70BUSD 4.46BUSD 1.38BUSD 4.67B 2.799.45n/an/a79.38
Year 93.0% USD 236.48BUSD 4.59BUSD 1.42BUSD 4.81B 2.889.73n/an/a81.73
Year 102.9% USD 243.33BUSD 4.73BUSD 1.46BUSD 4.95B 2.9610.02n/an/a84.10

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.