Centene Corporation
Centene Corporation operates as a managed care company that provides programs and services to under-insured families, and commercial organizations in the United States. It operates through four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and Other. The Medicaid segment offers the temporary assistance…
Centene Corporation operates as a managed care company that provides programs and services to under-insured families, and commercial organizations in the United States. It operates through four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and Other. The Medicaid segment offers the temporary assistance for needy families; medicaid expansion; aged, blind, or disabled; and children's health insurance programs, as well as long-term services and supports; foster care; and medicare-medicaid plans. This segment also provides healthcare products and services. The Medicare segment offers special needs and medicare supplement, and prescription drug plans. The Commercial segment provides health insurance marketplace product for individual and commercial group. The Other segment operates clinical healthcare and pharmacies, as well as offers vision and dental, behavioral health, and centralized services. It provides services through primary and specialty care physicians, hospitals, behavioral health practitioners, and ancillary providers. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.Looks undervalued
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly.
Other models: USD 40.03–124.78 (median 108.12). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price below modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using TTM through 30 Sep 2026 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 3.37% growth, 2.9% terminal growth, and 10.5% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 3.37%, discount rate 10.50%, terminal growth 2.90% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 3.4% (sector default 6.8%, own revenue history 11.5%, analyst revenue consensus -2.4%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of -2.4% a year; the growth assumption used is 3.4%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 126.96 (+71.2%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 40.03 (-46.0%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 126.96 (+71.2%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 2.7x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 124.78 (+68.2%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 2.7x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 108.12 (+45.8%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 126.87 (+71.1%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 2.7x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 434.91 (+486.4%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 99.50 | 25.5% |
| Base USD 126.96 | 41.6% |
| Bull USD 174.72 | 57.5% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 74.17 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.9%, discount 10.5%).
Compare: the market implies -11.3% a year, this model assumes 3.4%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.6% | 142.18 | 123.41 | 109.56 | 98.93 | 90.50 |
| 1.4% | 153.93 | 133.21 | 117.94 | 106.22 | 96.94 |
| 3.4% | 166.59 | 143.77 | 126.96 | 114.06 | 103.85 |
| 5.4% | 180.22 | 155.13 | 136.65 | 122.48 | 111.26 |
| 7.4% | 194.86 | 167.32 | 147.05 | 131.51 | 119.21 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 72 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 4 of 5 years profitable | 16 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 4 of 5 years | 16 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +7.7% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net cash | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 2% | 0 / 20 |
Peers in Health Care
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNC (this company) | USD 74.17 | 41.6% | 25.1 | 1.7 | – | 72 |
| ZEAL.CO Zealand Pharma A/S | DKK 235.70 | 35.7% | 6.1 | 0.9 | – | 72 |
| CI Cigna | USD 301.48 | 28.8% | 12.4 | 1.9 | 2.0% | 70 |
| CVS CVS Health | USD 81.33 | 12.4% | 9.5 | 1.3 | 3.3% | 70 |
| BAVA.CO Bavarian Nordic A/S | DKK 239.80 | 12.4% | 11.8 | 1.4 | – | 92 |
| AMP.MI Amplifon S.p.A. | EUR 11.17 | 8.7% | 41.1 | – | 2.6% | 72 |
| ZBH Zimmer Biomet | USD 106.85 | 0.5% | 26.6 | 1.6 | 0.9% | 90 |
| GSK.L GSK plc | GBP 18.50 | -3.2% | 17.3 | 4.0 | 3.6% | 92 |
| SAN.PA Sanofi | EUR 82.64 | -4.2% | 12.9 | – | 4.7% | 92 |
| Peer median | 12.7 | 1.5 | ||||
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 14:08
| Revenue | USD 194,691,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 3,782,037,000 |
| EBIT | USD 2,554,037,000 |
| Net income | USD 1,461,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 3,960,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 781,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 15,542,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 23,586,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD 6,393,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 494,143,000 |