Centene Corporation
Centene Corporation operates as a managed care company that provides programs and services to under-insured families, and commercial organizations in the United States. It operates through four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and Other. The Medicaid segment offers the temporary assistance…
Centene Corporation operates as a managed care company that provides programs and services to under-insured families, and commercial organizations in the United States. It operates through four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and Other. The Medicaid segment offers the temporary assistance for needy families; medicaid expansion; aged, blind, or disabled; and children's health insurance programs, as well as long-term services and supports; foster care; and medicare-medicaid plans. This segment also provides healthcare products and services. The Medicare segment offers special needs and medicare supplement, and prescription drug plans. The Commercial segment provides health insurance marketplace product for individual and commercial group. The Other segment operates clinical healthcare and pharmacies, as well as offers vision and dental, behavioral health, and centralized services. It provides services through primary and specialty care physicians, hospitals, behavioral health practitioners, and ancillary providers. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.Looks undervalued
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price below modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using Fiscal year 2025 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 3.37% growth, 2.9% terminal growth, and 10.5% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 3.37%, discount rate 10.50%, terminal growth 2.90% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 3.4% (sector default 6.8%, own revenue history 11.5%, analyst revenue consensus -2.4%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 4.7% a year (Medium confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of -2.4% a year; the growth assumption used is 3.4%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 121.82 (+69.2%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: net income is zero or negative.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 121.82 (+69.2%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 119.44 (+65.8%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: EBITDA is missing, zero or negative.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 121.73 (+69.0%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 395.79 (+449.6%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 91.80 | 21.5% |
| Base USD 121.82 | 40.9% |
| Bull USD 174.04 | 58.6% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 72.02 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.9%, discount 10.5%).
Compare: the market implies -8.7% a year, this model assumes 3.4%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.6% | 138.47 | 117.94 | 102.80 | 91.17 | 81.96 |
| 1.4% | 151.32 | 128.66 | 111.96 | 99.15 | 88.99 |
| 3.4% | 165.16 | 140.21 | 121.82 | 107.72 | 96.55 |
| 5.4% | 180.06 | 152.62 | 132.42 | 116.92 | 104.66 |
| 7.4% | 196.07 | 165.96 | 143.79 | 126.79 | 113.35 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 72 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 4 of 5 years profitable | 16 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 4 of 5 years | 16 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +9.0% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net cash | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 1% | 0 / 20 |
Peers in Health Care
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNC (this company) | USD 72.02 | -11.5% | 24.4 | 1.6 | – | 72 |
| ZEAL.CO Zealand Pharma A/S | DKK 231.10 | 37.0% | 6.0 | 0.9 | – | 72 |
| CI Cigna | USD 295.59 | 30.1% | 12.2 | 1.8 | 2.1% | 70 |
| DVA DaVita | USD 190.08 | 26.9% | 19.3 | – | – | 90 |
| BAVA.CO Bavarian Nordic A/S | DKK 238.20 | 13.0% | 11.7 | 1.4 | – | 92 |
| CVS CVS Health | USD 81.72 | 12.0% | 9.5 | 1.3 | 3.2% | 70 |
| INCY Incyte | USD 117.12 | 9.5% | 18.3 | 4.5 | – | 100 |
| AMP.MI Amplifon S.p.A. | EUR 11.17 | 8.7% | 41.1 | – | 2.6% | 72 |
| ZBH Zimmer Biomet | USD 106.85 | 0.5% | 26.6 | 1.6 | 0.9% | 90 |
| Peer median | 15.2 | 1.5 | ||||
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · SEC EDGAR annual filings · period ended 31 Dec 2025
| Revenue | USD 194,777,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD -6,348,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD -7,623,000,000 |
| Net income | USD -6,674,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 4,321,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD -767,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 17,493,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 17,888,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD 3,674,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 493,116,000 |