Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Evolution AB (EVO.ST)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:53.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in SEK and a share price of SEK 848.00. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 9.3% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 3.0% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 66.5%, net 49.6%, free cash flow 57.1% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Starting growth was capped from 9.3% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (5.6%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
SEK 967.15Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range SEK 739.30 to SEK 1,357.73
14%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

6.6%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
SEK 32.73BRevenue in year 10 (base)
SEK 16.24BNet income in year 10 (base)
SEK 18.68BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
SEK 43.99Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
SEK 1,224.54Implied share price in year 10 (base), today SEK 848.00
11.6%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

SEK 0 SEK 6.52B SEK 13.04B SEK 19.56B SEK 26.07B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -0.4% SEK 13.19B -0.1%
Base 5.6% SEK 18.68B 3.4%
Bull 11.6% SEK 26.07B 6.9%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– SEK 23.46BSEK 15.61BSEK 11.64BSEK 13.39B 61.5770.8131.53211.51848.00
Year 15.6% SEK 24.78BSEK 16.48BSEK 12.29BSEK 14.14B 65.0274.7733.29243.23901.69
Year 24.3% SEK 25.84BSEK 17.19BSEK 12.82BSEK 14.74B 67.8177.9834.72276.32946.98
Year 33.0% SEK 26.62BSEK 17.71BSEK 13.21BSEK 15.19B 69.8480.3235.77310.40982.15
Year 43.0% SEK 27.41BSEK 18.24BSEK 13.60BSEK 15.64B 71.9482.7336.84345.501,018.57
Year 53.0% SEK 28.24BSEK 18.78BSEK 14.01BSEK 16.11B 74.1085.2137.94381.651,056.30
Year 63.0% SEK 29.08BSEK 19.35BSEK 14.43BSEK 16.60B 76.3287.7739.08418.891,087.99
Year 73.0% SEK 29.96BSEK 19.93BSEK 14.86BSEK 17.09B 78.6190.4040.25457.241,120.63
Year 83.0% SEK 30.86BSEK 20.53BSEK 15.31BSEK 17.61B 80.9793.1141.46496.751,154.25
Year 93.0% SEK 31.78BSEK 21.14BSEK 15.77BSEK 18.13B 83.4095.9142.71537.441,188.88
Year 103.0% SEK 32.73BSEK 21.78BSEK 16.24BSEK 18.68B 85.9098.7843.99579.351,224.54

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.