Evolution AB
Evolution AB (publ) develops, produces, markets, and licenses live casino and slots solutions to gaming operators in Europe, Asia, North America, Latin America, and internationally. It offers casino and live games shows under the Evolution and Ezugi brands; online casino under the NetEnt brand name…
Evolution AB (publ) develops, produces, markets, and licenses live casino and slots solutions to gaming operators in Europe, Asia, North America, Latin America, and internationally. It offers casino and live games shows under the Evolution and Ezugi brands; online casino under the NetEnt brand name; and casino games and software comprising jackpot system, a smart spins bonus management application, and tournaments gamification under the Red Tiger brand. It also provides slots titles and game mechanics under the Big Time Gaming brand; online casino platform and games under the Nolimit City brand name; HD spinning gaming wheels under the DigiWheel brand; and B2B social streaming games under the Livespins brand name. The company was formerly known as Evolution Gaming Group AB (publ). Evolution AB (publ) was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart.
Other models: SEK 758.24–954.88 (median 901.17). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using Fiscal year 2025 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 3% growth, 3% terminal growth, and 10.8% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 3% (limited from 9.26% because the latest annual revenue declined), discount rate 10.80%, terminal growth 3%. See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 9.3% (sector default 7.2%, own revenue history 18.6%, analyst revenue consensus 5.6%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 5.6% a year; the growth assumption used is 3.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — SEK 901.17 (+6.3%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— SEK 758.24 (-10.6%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— SEK 901.17 (+6.3%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— SEK 901.17 (+6.3%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— SEK 954.88 (+12.6%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— SEK 901.17 (+6.3%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— SEK 1636.69 (+93.0%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear SEK 690.17 | -22.9% |
| Base SEK 901.17 | 5.9% |
| Bull SEK 1262.87 | 32.9% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At SEK 848.00 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 3.0%, discount 10.8%).
Compare: the market implies 1.5% a year, this model assumes 3.0%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.0% | 1010.87 | 870.03 | 765.23 | 684.17 | 619.60 |
| 1.0% | 1101.80 | 946.35 | 830.71 | 741.32 | 670.14 |
| 3.0% | 1199.77 | 1028.51 | 901.17 | 802.77 | 724.45 |
| 5.0% | 1305.20 | 1116.88 | 976.89 | 868.76 | 782.73 |
| 7.0% | 1418.53 | 1211.79 | 1058.17 | 939.54 | 845.20 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 100 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +10.0% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net cash | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 67% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Discretionary
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVO.ST (this company) | SEK 848.00 | 5.9% | 14.8 | 3.9 | 3.7% | 100 |
| KGF.L Kingfisher plc | GBP 3.72 | 45.2% | 27.0 | 1.1 | 3.3% | 74 |
| BWY.L Bellway p.l.c. | GBP 23.01 | 43.6% | 14.0 | 0.8 | 3.1% | 70 |
| INCH.L Inchcape plc | GBP 6.41 | 37.3% | 9.0 | 1.9 | 4.1% | 80 |
| ZAL.DE Zalando SE | EUR 27.49 | 36.6% | 108.5 | 2.6 | – | 80 |
| DECK Deckers Brands | USD 87.74 | 34.9% | 11.2 | 5.1 | – | 100 |
| EXPE Expedia Group | USD 272.48 | 29.6% | 15.8 | 20.2 | 0.7% | 100 |
| BKNG Booking Holdings | USD 168.72 | 28.9% | 17.7 | – | 1.0% | 100 |
| PETS.L Pets at Home Group Plc | GBP 2.58 | 25.2% | 18.8 | 1.2 | 2.9% | 82 |
| Peer median | 16.8 | 1.9 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: SEK 0.00 per share.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 30.640 |
| 2024 | 31.020 |
| 2023 | 22.540 |
| 2022 | 14.580 |
| 2021 | 6.880 |
| 2020 | 4.410 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · EODHD annual statements · period ended 31 Dec 2025
| Revenue | SEK 23,241,380,823 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | SEK 15,553,569,767 |
| EBIT | SEK 13,797,645,469 |
| Net income | SEK 11,653,524,706 |
| Free cash flow | SEK 13,308,614,781 |
| Capital expenditures | SEK 722,081,465 |
| Debt | SEK 1,792,060,696 |
| Cash | SEK 8,943,476,104 |
| Working capital | SEK 9,012,163,484 |
| Shares outstanding | 202,951,204 |
| Reported dividends per share | SEK 31.5311 |