Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

First Solar (FSLR)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 14:06.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 195.76. Growth begins at 17.7% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.3% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 50.7%, net 37.1%, free cash flow 4.6% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (23.3%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 264.21Model fair value (Earnings-based DCF); range USD 200.46 to USD 370.52
35%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: EV/EBITDA (12x) agrees; trailing-twelve-month data.

10.9%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 14.51BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 4.14BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 673.85MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 549.13Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 195.76
3.2%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Net income over time

-USD 44.17M USD 1.37B USD 2.78B USD 4.20B USD 5.61B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Net income in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 17.3% USD 3.02B 4.9%
Base 23.3% USD 4.14B 8.3%
Bull 29.3% USD 5.61B 11.7%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 5.01BUSD 2.54BUSD 1.86BUSD 232.79M 17.282.16n/an/a195.76
Year 123.3% USD 6.18BUSD 3.13BUSD 2.19BUSD 286.96M 20.312.66n/an/a242.17
Year 219.7% USD 7.40BUSD 3.75BUSD 2.49BUSD 343.39M 23.123.19n/an/a289.42
Year 314.5% USD 8.47BUSD 4.29BUSD 2.70BUSD 393.04M 25.113.65n/an/a329.21
Year 412.9% USD 9.55BUSD 4.84BUSD 2.89BUSD 443.57M 26.814.12n/an/a367.41
Year 511.3% USD 10.63BUSD 5.39BUSD 3.03BUSD 493.49M 28.124.58n/an/a402.16
Year 69.7% USD 11.66BUSD 5.91BUSD 3.32BUSD 541.14M 30.845.02n/an/a440.98
Year 78.1% USD 12.59BUSD 6.38BUSD 3.59BUSD 584.72M 33.325.43n/an/a476.50
Year 86.5% USD 13.41BUSD 6.80BUSD 3.82BUSD 622.44M 35.475.78n/an/a507.24
Year 94.9% USD 14.06BUSD 7.13BUSD 4.01BUSD 652.64M 37.196.06n/an/a531.85
Year 103.3% USD 14.51BUSD 7.36BUSD 4.14BUSD 673.85M 38.406.26n/an/a549.13

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.