Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Holcim AG (HOLN.SW)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 04 Nov 2026 15:22.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in CHF and a share price of CHF 73.70. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 3.3% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.6% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 16.8%, net 83.8%, free cash flow 11.0% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Starting growth was capped from 3.3% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Margins drift toward their 3-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (8.8%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
CHF 68.07Model fair value (Normalised free-cash-flow DCF); range CHF 51.31 to CHF 95.11
-8%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

-2.5%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
CHF 22.51BRevenue in year 10 (base)
CHF 7.01BNet income in year 10 (base)
CHF 3.62BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
CHF 1.65Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
CHF 38.44Implied share price in year 10 (base), today CHF 73.70
8.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

CHF 0 CHF 1.26B CHF 2.52B CHF 3.78B CHF 5.04B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 2.8% CHF 2.56B 4.0%
Base 8.8% CHF 3.62B 7.7%
Bull 14.8% CHF 5.04B 11.3%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– CHF 15.72BCHF 2.64BCHF 13.18BCHF 1.73B 23.793.123.10n/a73.70
Year 18.8% CHF 17.10BCHF 3.09BCHF 12.53BCHF 2.05B 22.623.702.95n/a69.82
Year 25.9% CHF 18.11BCHF 3.51BCHF 11.36BCHF 2.36B 20.514.252.67n/a63.05
Year 32.9% CHF 18.64BCHF 3.85BCHF 9.73BCHF 2.62B 17.564.722.29n/a53.78
Year 42.9% CHF 19.17BCHF 4.21BCHF 7.99BCHF 2.89B 14.425.211.88n/a43.99
Year 52.8% CHF 19.71BCHF 4.58BCHF 6.14BCHF 3.17B 11.085.721.44n/a33.66
Year 62.8% CHF 20.26BCHF 4.71BCHF 6.31BCHF 3.25B 11.385.871.48n/a34.60
Year 72.7% CHF 20.81BCHF 4.84BCHF 6.48BCHF 3.34B 11.696.041.52n/a35.54
Year 82.7% CHF 21.37BCHF 4.97BCHF 6.65BCHF 3.43B 12.016.201.57n/a36.50
Year 92.6% CHF 21.94BCHF 5.10BCHF 6.83BCHF 3.52B 12.336.361.61n/a37.46
Year 102.6% CHF 22.51BCHF 5.23BCHF 7.01BCHF 3.62B 12.656.531.65n/a38.44

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.