Holcim AG
Holcim AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials and solutions in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, Middle East, and Africa. It provides foundation, flooring, walling and roofing products, including cement, clinker, and other cementitious materials; ready-mix concrete; aggregat…
Holcim AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials and solutions in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, Middle East, and Africa. It provides foundation, flooring, walling and roofing products, including cement, clinker, and other cementitious materials; ready-mix concrete; aggregates, such as crushed stone, gravel, and sand; and precast, concrete products, asphalts, mortars, roofing systems, insulation systems, tile adhesives, facade solutions, and contracting and services. The company also provides digital services through HOLCIM+ platform and digital concrete services. Its products are used in infrastructure projects, such as tunnels, railways and train stations, airports and ports, and bridges; housing projects, including individual and collective housing; commercial projects comprising offices, retail, and public buildings; and industrial projects consisting of renewable energy, oil and gas, and mining. The company sells its products under the ECOPact, ECOPlanet, ECOCycle, Ytong, Aggneo, Hydromedia, ZinCo Holcim, Elevate, Airium, PRB Group, Cantillana, Flachdach Technologie, Izolbet, Disensa, Tector, DYNAMax, Agilia, Ductal, Artevia, Humes, Tensolite, Compaktuna, and other service brands. The company was formerly known as LafargeHolcim Ltd and changed its name to Holcim AG in May 2021. Holcim AG was founded in 1833 and is headquartered in Zug, Switzerland.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly.
Other models: CHF 38.49–338.95 (median 51.23). The recommended value is 33% above that median, so treat the upside with extra caution.
Why: Latest free cash flow is depressed by heavy investment or one-off items, so a three-year average is used instead.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Normalised free-cash-flow DCF using a three-year average of free cash flow, because the latest figure is depressed by heavy investment or one-off items, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 3% growth, 2.6% terminal growth, and 9.8% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 3% (limited from 3.34% because the latest annual revenue declined), discount rate 9.80%, terminal growth 2.60%. See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 3.3% (sector default 5.8%, own revenue history -10.0%, analyst revenue consensus 8.8%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 8.8% a year; the growth assumption used is 3.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Latest free cash flow is depressed by heavy investment or one-off items, so a three-year average is used instead.
Compare models- Recommended: Normalised free-cash-flow DCF — CHF 68.07 (-7.6%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— CHF 338.95 (+359.9%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— CHF 39.26 (-46.7%)
Not used: Free cash flow is only 13% of net income, so a cash-flow model is probably depressed by investment timing.
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FCFF (steady state)
— CHF 38.49 (-47.8%)
Not used: Free cash flow is only 13% of net income, so a cash-flow model is probably depressed by investment timing.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— CHF 51.23 (-30.5%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— CHF 39.23 (-46.8%)
Not used: Free cash flow is only 13% of net income, so a cash-flow model is probably depressed by investment timing.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— CHF 106.37 (+44.3%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear CHF 51.31 | -43.6% |
| Base CHF 68.07 | -8.3% |
| Bull CHF 95.11 | 22.5% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At CHF 73.70 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.6%, discount 9.8%).
Compare: the market implies 0.3% a year, this model assumes 3.0%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
How the Normalised free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.0% | 97.86 | 81.37 | 69.46 | 60.45 | 53.39 |
| 1.0% | 107.65 | 89.45 | 76.31 | 66.36 | 58.58 |
| 3.0% | 118.21 | 98.16 | 83.67 | 72.73 | 64.16 |
| 5.0% | 129.58 | 107.52 | 91.60 | 79.56 | 70.15 |
| 7.0% | 141.80 | 117.58 | 100.10 | 86.90 | 76.57 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 84 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue -5.1% a year | 4 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 1.4x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 22% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Materials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOLN.SW (this company) | CHF 73.70 | -8.3% | 3.1 | – | 4.2% | 74 |
| MT.AS ArcelorMittal S.A. | EUR 56.00 | 39.3% | 26.4 | 0.9 | 1.1% | 70 |
| MNDI.L Mondi plc | GBP 7.79 | 3.4% | 25.0 | 0.9 | 7.3% | 64 |
| CF CF Industries | USD 118.57 | -3.0% | 8.2 | 2.0 | 2.2% | 84 |
| UPM.HE UPM-Kymmene Oyj | EUR 22.40 | -10.6% | 17.2 | 1.2 | 6.7% | 70 |
| YAR.OL Yara International ASA | NOK 396.30 | -14.8% | 7.9 | 1.2 | 1.2% | 74 |
| AMCR Amcor | USD 45.84 | -20.9% | 19.6 | 0.6 | 5.8% | 90 |
| MOS Mosaic Company (The) | USD 22.33 | -35.5% | 13.2 | – | 3.9% | 79 |
| VSVS.L Vesuvius plc | GBP 4.60 | -39.4% | 22.0 | 1.0 | 5.0% | 68 |
| Peer median | 18.4 | 1.0 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: CHF 1.70 per share · yield 2.31% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 1.700 |
| 2025 | 1.575 |
| 2024 | 1.423 |
| 2023 | 1.270 |
| 2022 | 1.118 |
| 2021 | 1.016 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · Yahoo Finance annual statements · period ended 31 Dec 2025 , annual figures reported by Yahoo Finance
| Revenue | CHF 15,724,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | CHF 2,639,000,000 |
| EBIT | CHF 1,288,000,000 |
| Net income | CHF 13,179,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | CHF 1,727,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | CHF -1,061,000,000 |
| Debt | CHF 8,724,000,000 |
| Cash | CHF 5,443,000,000 |
| Working capital | CHF 2,402,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 554,067,227 |
| Reported dividends per share | CHF 3.1000 |