Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Imperial Brands PLC (IMB.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:47.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 29.68. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 13.2%, net 6.4%, free cash flow 8.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 1.5 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (1.5%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 26.57Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range GBP 20.59 to GBP 37.16
-10%Fair value vs today's price
MediumModel confidence
50%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF is somewhat apart; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

6.5%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 39.68BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 2.55BNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 3.53BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 2.31Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 34.69Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 29.68
14.3%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

GBP 0.00 GBP 0.65 GBP 1.31 GBP 1.96 GBP 2.61 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 0.0% GBP 2.04 0.9%
Base 1.5% GBP 2.31 2.1%
Bull 3.0% GBP 2.61 3.4%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– GBP 32.17BGBP 4.26BGBP 2.07BGBP 2.86B 2.493.441.885.8129.68
Year 11.5% GBP 32.65BGBP 4.32BGBP 2.10BGBP 2.90B 2.533.491.906.4329.80
Year 21.8% GBP 33.22BGBP 4.40BGBP 2.14BGBP 2.95B 2.573.551.947.0730.01
Year 32.1% GBP 33.92BGBP 4.49BGBP 2.18BGBP 3.01B 2.633.631.987.7230.31
Year 42.1% GBP 34.64BGBP 4.59BGBP 2.23BGBP 3.08B 2.683.712.028.3930.62
Year 52.2% GBP 35.39BGBP 4.69BGBP 2.28BGBP 3.15B 2.743.792.069.0730.95
Year 62.2% GBP 36.18BGBP 4.79BGBP 2.33BGBP 3.22B 2.803.872.119.7631.63
Year 72.3% GBP 37.00BGBP 4.90BGBP 2.38BGBP 3.29B 2.873.962.1610.4732.35
Year 82.3% GBP 37.86BGBP 5.01BGBP 2.44BGBP 3.36B 2.934.052.2111.2033.10
Year 92.4% GBP 38.75BGBP 5.13BGBP 2.49BGBP 3.44B 3.004.152.2611.9433.88
Year 102.4% GBP 39.68BGBP 5.25BGBP 2.55BGBP 3.53B 3.084.252.3112.7034.69

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.