Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; Fiscal year 2026; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:38.

Starts from Fiscal year 2026 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 0.95. Growth begins at 5.3% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.1% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 15.0%, net 3.4%, free cash flow 7.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (1.9%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 0.88Model fair value (Earnings-based DCF); range GBP 0.66 to GBP 1.25
-8%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF disagrees strongly; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

4.4%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 18.23BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 627.88MNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 1.44BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.01Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 1.34Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 0.95
29.7%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Net income over time

GBP 0 GBP 219.07M GBP 438.15M GBP 657.22M GBP 876.29M FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 Fiscal year 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Net income in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -4.1% GBP 443.59M 0.2%
Base 1.9% GBP 627.88M 3.7%
Bull 7.9% GBP 876.29M 7.2%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2026– GBP 12.66BGBP 1.90BGBP 436.00MGBP 1.00B 0.090.200.010.580.95
Year 11.9% GBP 12.91BGBP 1.94BGBP 444.41MGBP 1.02B 0.090.200.010.660.96
Year 23.5% GBP 13.36BGBP 2.00BGBP 460.00MGBP 1.06B 0.090.210.010.740.99
Year 34.8% GBP 14.00BGBP 2.10BGBP 482.23MGBP 1.11B 0.090.220.010.821.04
Year 44.6% GBP 14.65BGBP 2.20BGBP 504.35MGBP 1.16B 0.100.230.010.911.08
Year 54.3% GBP 15.28BGBP 2.29BGBP 526.24MGBP 1.21B 0.100.240.011.001.12
Year 64.1% GBP 15.91BGBP 2.39BGBP 547.77MGBP 1.26B 0.110.250.011.101.17
Year 73.8% GBP 16.52BGBP 2.48BGBP 568.82MGBP 1.31B 0.110.260.011.191.22
Year 83.6% GBP 17.11BGBP 2.57BGBP 589.27MGBP 1.35B 0.120.260.011.291.26
Year 93.3% GBP 17.69BGBP 2.65BGBP 609.00MGBP 1.40B 0.120.270.011.401.30
Year 103.1% GBP 18.23BGBP 2.74BGBP 627.88MGBP 1.44B 0.120.280.011.511.34

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.