Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Lloyds Banking Group plc (LLOY.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:48; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 15:55.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 0.96. Growth begins at 10.8% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 16.3%, net 11.4%, free cash flow -1.6% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is negative today, so the projection keeps it negative. It does not model a turnaround.
For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (8.1%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 0.82Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range GBP 0.73 to GBP 0.98
-15%Fair value vs today's price
MediumModel confidence
50%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only.

8.3%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 74.94BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 8.52BNet income in year 10 (base)
-GBP 1.17BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.06Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 1.63Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 0.96
-2.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

GBP 0.00 GBP 0.41 GBP 0.82 GBP 1.23 GBP 1.64 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 2.1% GBP 1.32 5.2%
Base 8.1% GBP 1.46 6.3%
Bull 14.1% GBP 1.64 7.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– GBP 40.96BGBP 6.66BGBP 4.66B-GBP 639.00M 0.08-0.010.030.800.96
Year 18.1% GBP 44.28BGBP 7.20BGBP 5.04B-GBP 690.89M 0.08-0.010.040.851.00
Year 29.0% GBP 48.27BGBP 7.85BGBP 5.49B-GBP 753.08M 0.09-0.010.040.901.05
Year 38.9% GBP 52.59BGBP 8.55BGBP 5.98B-GBP 820.47M 0.10-0.010.040.951.10
Year 48.0% GBP 56.80BGBP 9.24BGBP 6.46B-GBP 886.22M 0.11-0.010.051.021.15
Year 57.1% GBP 60.82BGBP 9.89BGBP 6.92B-GBP 948.95M 0.12-0.020.051.081.21
Year 66.1% GBP 64.56BGBP 10.50BGBP 7.34B-GBP 1.01B 0.12-0.020.051.151.28
Year 75.2% GBP 67.92BGBP 11.05BGBP 7.73B-GBP 1.06B 0.13-0.020.061.231.37
Year 84.3% GBP 70.82BGBP 11.52BGBP 8.06B-GBP 1.10B 0.13-0.020.061.301.45
Year 93.3% GBP 73.18BGBP 11.90BGBP 8.32B-GBP 1.14B 0.14-0.020.061.381.54
Year 102.4% GBP 74.94BGBP 12.19BGBP 8.52B-GBP 1.17B 0.14-0.020.061.461.63

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.