Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC.TO)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 05 Nov 2026 16:06.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in CAD and a share price of CAD 61.63. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 14.9%, net 11.6%, free cash flow 53.1% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
CAD 44.59Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range CAD 38.63 to CAD 54.82
-28%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

4.8%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
CAD 71.97BRevenue in year 10 (base)
CAD 6.94BNet income in year 10 (base)
CAD 38.23BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
CAD 2.11Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
CAD 78.26Implied share price in year 10 (base), today CAD 61.63
37.1%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

CAD 0.00 CAD 14.03 CAD 28.07 CAD 42.10 CAD 56.13 FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -4.0% CAD 47.06 4.0%
Base 2.0% CAD 51.09 4.8%
Bull 8.0% CAD 56.13 5.8%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– CAD 57.90BCAD 8.60BCAD 6.72BCAD 30.76B 4.0318.422.0531.8961.63
Year 12.0% CAD 59.06BCAD 8.43BCAD 6.63BCAD 31.37B 3.9718.792.0233.8462.69
Year 22.0% CAD 60.26BCAD 8.25BCAD 6.53BCAD 32.01B 3.9119.171.9935.7663.38
Year 32.1% CAD 61.52BCAD 8.07BCAD 6.42BCAD 32.68B 3.8419.571.9537.6563.71
Year 42.1% CAD 62.83BCAD 7.88BCAD 6.31BCAD 33.38B 3.7819.991.9239.5163.69
Year 52.2% CAD 64.20BCAD 7.68BCAD 6.19BCAD 34.11B 3.7120.421.8941.3363.31
Year 62.2% CAD 65.63BCAD 7.85BCAD 6.33BCAD 34.86B 3.7920.881.9343.2066.17
Year 72.3% CAD 67.12BCAD 8.03BCAD 6.48BCAD 35.65B 3.8821.351.9745.1069.08
Year 82.3% CAD 68.67BCAD 8.22BCAD 6.63BCAD 36.48B 3.9721.842.0247.0572.07
Year 92.4% CAD 70.29BCAD 8.41BCAD 6.78BCAD 37.34B 4.0622.362.0749.0575.13
Year 102.4% CAD 71.97BCAD 8.61BCAD 6.94BCAD 38.23B 4.1622.892.1151.0978.26

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.