Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 18:22; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 18:30.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 377.32. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.5% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 14.4%, net 8.4%, free cash flow 11.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-10.4%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 279.37Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 195.46 to USD 419.57
-26%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

-2.0%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 180.52BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 11.45BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 12.55BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 3.25Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 276.03Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 377.32
11.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 5.21B USD 10.42B USD 15.63B USD 20.84B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -16.4% USD 8.71B -8.4%
Base -10.4% USD 12.55B -4.9%
Bull -4.4% USD 17.80B -1.6%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 175.17BUSD 25.15BUSD 14.63BUSD 20.84B 52.2574.444.1682.89377.32
Year 1-10.4% USD 156.97BUSD 21.43BUSD 12.48BUSD 17.12B 44.5761.163.55123.91317.65
Year 2-4.2% USD 150.43BUSD 19.48BUSD 11.35BUSD 14.92B 40.5553.293.23161.24285.21
Year 32.1% USD 153.60BUSD 18.81BUSD 10.98BUSD 13.72B 39.2048.993.12197.32272.03
Year 42.2% USD 156.93BUSD 18.11BUSD 10.58BUSD 12.46B 37.7944.513.01232.10258.73
Year 52.2% USD 160.42BUSD 17.38BUSD 10.17BUSD 11.15B 36.3339.832.89265.54245.30
Year 62.3% USD 164.07BUSD 17.78BUSD 10.40BUSD 11.41B 37.1640.742.96299.74250.89
Year 72.3% USD 167.90BUSD 18.19BUSD 10.65BUSD 11.67B 38.0241.693.02334.74256.74
Year 82.4% USD 171.91BUSD 18.63BUSD 10.90BUSD 11.95B 38.9342.693.10370.57262.87
Year 92.4% USD 176.11BUSD 19.08BUSD 11.17BUSD 12.24B 39.8843.733.17407.28269.30
Year 102.5% USD 180.52BUSD 19.56BUSD 11.45BUSD 12.55B 40.8844.823.25444.91276.03

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.