Marathon Petroleum
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other …
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures propane and petrochemicals. The company sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment gathers, transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products, including renewable diesel and other hydrocarbon-based products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, markets, and distributes renewable diesel through its Midstream segment and third parties. It sells renewable diesel to wholesale marketing customers, buyers on the spot market, and through long-term supply contracts to direct dealers under the ARCO brand. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.After signing in, return here and select “Add to watchlist”. Saving companies requires a verified email address.
Looks overvalued
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF agrees.
Other models: USD 187.36–456.88 (median 242.58). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Start with the price and fair value range, then review the data dates and assumptions below. Estimates are not predictions or investment advice.
Market price above modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using Fiscal year 2025 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 2% growth, 2.5% terminal growth, and 9.2% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 2%, discount rate 9.20%, terminal growth 2.50% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 2.0% (sector default 4.6%, own revenue history 2.5%, analyst revenue consensus -10.0%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of -10.4% a year; the growth assumption used is 2.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 204.46 (-45.8%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 187.36 (-50.3%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 237.48 (-37.1%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 242.58 (-35.7%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 456.88 (+21.1%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 237.67 (-37.0%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 932.09 (+147.0%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 156.98 | -140.4% |
| Base USD 204.46 | -84.5% |
| Bull USD 283.79 | -33.0% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 377.32 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.5%, discount 9.2%).
Compare: the market implies 13.3% a year, this model assumes 2.0%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
Sensitivity: base value per share
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
These are assumption-based scenarios, not a confidence interval. Scroll horizontally to see all discount rates.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0% | 281.16 | 233.45 | 199.95 | 175.13 | 156.00 |
| 0.0% | 307.77 | 255.03 | 218.02 | 190.61 | 169.48 |
| 2.0% | 336.47 | 278.30 | 237.48 | 207.27 | 184.00 |
| 4.0% | 367.41 | 303.36 | 258.43 | 225.19 | 199.59 |
| 6.0% | 400.71 | 330.31 | 280.95 | 244.43 | 216.33 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
5 years price change: +542.27% · USD 377.32 · Market data through 05 Nov 2026 ; dashed line is today’s model base value (USD 204.46). The fair value is today’s estimate, not what the model said in the past.
Saved price history is current through 05 Nov 2026; last refreshed 06 Nov 2026 18:14 (15 minutes ago).
08 Nov 2021Range USD 54.97 – 476.9805 Nov 2026
Latest news
Headlines provided by EODHD. Articles may mention multiple companies and are not investment recommendations.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 74 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue -0.4% a year | 4 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net cash | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 14% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Energy
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPC (this company) | USD 377.32 | 8.1% | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.0% | 74 |
| HBR.L Harbour Energy plc | GBP 2.63 | 61.8% | – | 1.4 | 7.9% | 92 |
| FANG Diamondback Energy | USD 179.58 | 36.7% | 24.4 | 1.3 | 2.4% | 100 |
| SHEL.L Shell plc | GBP 37.23 | 32.4% | 8.6 | 1.4 | 3.0% | 84 |
| AKSO.OL Aker Solutions ASA | NOK 36.00 | 22.7% | 6.8 | 1.5 | 9.1% | 75 |
| BP.L BP p.l.c. | GBP 5.59 | 18.4% | – | – | 4.4% | 69 |
| BWLPG.OL BW LPG Limited | NOK 203.60 | 9.4% | 7.4 | 1.7 | 1.3% | 100 |
| EOG EOG Resources | USD 144.89 | 6.1% | 11.1 | 2.4 | 2.8% | 92 |
| TTE.PA TotalEnergies SE | EUR 79.65 | 4.9% | 9.0 | 1.5 | 4.3% | 84 |
| Peer median | 8.8 | 1.5 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 4.00 per share · yield 1.06% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 3.000 |
| 2025 | 3.730 |
| 2024 | 3.385 |
| 2023 | 3.075 |
| 2022 | 2.490 |
| 2021 | 2.320 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · SEC EDGAR annual filings · period ended 31 Dec 2025
| Revenue | USD 132,699,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 11,542,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 8,291,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 4,047,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 4,767,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD -3,486,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 2,371,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 3,672,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD 5,102,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 306,000,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 3.7300 |