Shell plc
Shell plc operates as an energy and petrochemical company in Europe, Asia, Oceania, Africa, the United States, and other parts of the Americas. It operates through the following segments: Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, and Renewables and Energy Solutions. The company e…
Shell plc operates as an energy and petrochemical company in Europe, Asia, Oceania, Africa, the United States, and other parts of the Americas. It operates through the following segments: Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, and Renewables and Energy Solutions. The company explores for and extracts natural gas to produce liquefied natural gas or convert it into gas-to-liquids (GTL) fuels and other products; explores for and extracts crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids; and operates marketing and transportation of oil, gas, and liquids, supported by the infrastructure required to deliver them to market or to process them within Shell's chemical manufacturing plants and refineries. It is also involved in marketing, which includes mobility, lubricants, and sectors focused on decarbonization; operates a retail network, including electric vehicle charging, convenience retail, and the wholesale commercial fuels business for transport and industry; sells products for road transport and machinery in manufacturing, mining, power generation, agriculture, and construction; and provides low-carbon energy solutions, such as biofuels, to a broad range of commercial customers, including those in the aviation, marine, and agriculture sectors. In addition, the company offers chemicals and products, including chemicals manufacturing plants with their own marketing network, and refineries that turn crude oil and other feedstocks into a range of oil products, which are moved and marketed around the world for domestic, industrial, and transport use; and operates a pipeline business, trading, and optimization of crude oil, oil products, and petrochemicals. The company was formerly known as Royal Dutch Shell plc and changed its name to Shell plc in January 2022. Shell plc was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in London, United Kingdom.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF agrees.
Other models: GBP 42.48–106.57 (median 53.77). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using Fiscal year 2025 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 2% growth, 2.5% terminal growth, and 9.2% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 2%, discount rate 9.20%, terminal growth 2.50% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 2.0% (sector default 4.6%, own revenue history -10.0%, analyst revenue consensus -6.3%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of -6.3% a year; the growth assumption used is 2.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — GBP 43.93 (+18.8%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— GBP 42.48 (+14.9%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— GBP 52.46 (+41.9%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— GBP 53.77 (+45.4%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— GBP 106.57 (+188.2%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— GBP 52.50 (+42.0%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— GBP 200.72 (+442.8%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear GBP 31.68 | -16.7% |
| Base GBP 43.93 | 15.8% |
| Bull GBP 64.41 | 42.6% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At GBP 36.98 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.5%, discount 9.2%).
Compare: the market implies -4.7% a year, this model assumes 2.0%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0% | 63.73 | 51.42 | 42.77 | 36.36 | 31.43 |
| 0.0% | 70.60 | 56.98 | 47.43 | 40.36 | 34.91 |
| 2.0% | 78.00 | 62.99 | 52.46 | 44.66 | 38.65 |
| 4.0% | 85.99 | 69.46 | 57.86 | 49.28 | 42.68 |
| 6.0% | 94.58 | 76.41 | 63.68 | 54.25 | 47.00 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 84 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue -11.1% a year | 4 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 0.5x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 24% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Energy
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHEL.L (this company) | GBP 36.98 | 15.8% | 12.3 | – | 2.9% | 84 |
| HBR.L Harbour Energy plc | GBP 2.62 | 61.8% | – | 1.4 | 7.9% | 92 |
| FANG Diamondback Energy | USD 179.58 | 36.7% | 24.4 | 1.3 | 2.4% | 100 |
| AKSO.OL Aker Solutions ASA | NOK 35.92 | 22.8% | 6.8 | 1.5 | 9.1% | 75 |
| BP.L BP p.l.c. | GBP 5.54 | 19.2% | – | – | 4.4% | 69 |
| AKRBP.OL Aker BP ASA | NOK 315.50 | 11.8% | 162.4 | 1.9 | 7.4% | 96 |
| DVN Devon Energy | USD 42.88 | 10.8% | 10.3 | 1.7 | – | 100 |
| EOG EOG Resources | USD 144.89 | 6.1% | 11.1 | 2.4 | 2.8% | 92 |
| TTE.PA TotalEnergies SE | EUR 79.16 | 5.5% | 9.0 | 1.5 | 4.3% | 84 |
| Peer median | 10.7 | 1.5 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: GBP 0.01 per share · yield 0.03% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 0.009 |
| 2025 | 0.011 |
| 2024 | 0.011 |
| 2023 | 0.010 |
| 2022 | 0.008 |
| 2021 | 0.006 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · Yahoo Finance annual statements · period ended 31 Dec 2025 , annual figures reported by Yahoo Finance
| Revenue | GBP 266,886,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | GBP 56,664,000,000 |
| EBIT | GBP 34,497,000,000 |
| Net income | GBP 17,837,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | GBP 23,916,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | GBP -18,947,000,000 |
| Debt | GBP 75,643,000,000 |
| Cash | GBP 29,630,000,000 |
| Working capital | GBP 24,758,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 5,948,600,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | GBP 1.0767 |