Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Shell plc (SHEL.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:41.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 36.98. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.5% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 23.7%, net 10.2%, free cash flow 11.0% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 5.5 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-6.3%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 55.04Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range GBP 40.75 to GBP 78.91
49%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

2.1%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 263.83BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 21.34BNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 28.64BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.98Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 36.25Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 36.98
13.7%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

GBP 0 GBP 11.45B GBP 22.91B GBP 34.36B GBP 45.81B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -11.8% GBP 20.53B -2.5%
Base -6.3% GBP 28.64B 0.8%
Bull -0.8% GBP 39.44B 4.1%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– GBP 239.76BGBP 56.88BGBP 24.42BGBP 26.49B 4.324.691.1226.0436.98
Year 1-6.3% GBP 224.63BGBP 52.44BGBP 21.94BGBP 24.73B 3.884.381.0128.9134.03
Year 2-2.1% GBP 219.85BGBP 50.49BGBP 20.55BGBP 24.12B 3.644.270.9431.6132.63
Year 32.1% GBP 224.49BGBP 50.70BGBP 20.04BGBP 24.55B 3.554.340.9234.2332.57
Year 42.2% GBP 229.36BGBP 50.93BGBP 19.51BGBP 24.99B 3.454.420.8936.7932.43
Year 52.2% GBP 234.45BGBP 51.18BGBP 18.96BGBP 25.45B 3.364.500.8739.2832.22
Year 62.3% GBP 239.79BGBP 52.34BGBP 19.39BGBP 26.03B 3.434.610.8941.8232.95
Year 72.3% GBP 245.39BGBP 53.56BGBP 19.85BGBP 26.64B 3.514.710.9144.4233.72
Year 82.4% GBP 251.25BGBP 54.84BGBP 20.32BGBP 27.28B 3.604.830.9347.0934.53
Year 92.4% GBP 257.39BGBP 56.18BGBP 20.82BGBP 27.94B 3.684.940.9549.8135.37
Year 102.5% GBP 263.83BGBP 57.59BGBP 21.34BGBP 28.64B 3.785.070.9852.6136.25

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.