Marathon Petroleum
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other …
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures propane and petrochemicals. The company sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment gathers, transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products, including renewable diesel and other hydrocarbon-based products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, markets, and distributes renewable diesel through its Midstream segment and third parties. It sells renewable diesel to wholesale marketing customers, buyers on the spot market, and through long-term supply contracts to direct dealers under the ARCO brand. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.After signing in, return here and select “Add to watchlist”. Saving companies requires a verified email address.
Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF agrees.
Other models: USD 740.26–1064.31 (median 1003.41). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Start with the price and fair value range, then review the data dates and assumptions below. Estimates are not predictions or investment advice.
Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using a three-year average of free cash flow, because the latest figure is depressed by heavy investment or one-off items, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 2% growth, 2.5% terminal growth, and 9.2% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 2%, discount rate 9.20%, terminal growth 2.50% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 2.0% (sector default 4.6%, own revenue history 2.5%, analyst revenue consensus -10.0%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of -10.4% a year; the growth assumption used is 2.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 279.37 (-26.0%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 740.26 (+96.2%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 1039.96 (+175.6%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 1064.31 (+182.1%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 1003.41 (+165.9%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 1040.85 (+175.9%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 1972.22 (+422.7%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 195.46 | -93.0% |
| Base USD 279.37 | -35.1% |
| Bull USD 419.57 | 10.1% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 377.32 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.5%, discount 9.2%).
Compare: the market implies 4.1% a year, this model assumes 2.0%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
Sensitivity: base value per share
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
These are assumption-based scenarios, not a confidence interval. Scroll horizontally to see all discount rates.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0% | 414.93 | 330.60 | 271.40 | 227.54 | 193.73 |
| 0.0% | 461.94 | 368.74 | 303.33 | 254.89 | 217.56 |
| 2.0% | 512.67 | 409.86 | 337.73 | 284.33 | 243.21 |
| 4.0% | 567.35 | 454.15 | 374.76 | 316.00 | 270.77 |
| 6.0% | 626.20 | 501.78 | 414.55 | 350.02 | 300.35 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
3 months price change: +18.12% · USD 377.32 · Market data through 05 Nov 2026 ; dashed line is today’s model base value (USD 279.37). The fair value is today’s estimate, not what the model said in the past.
Saved price history is current through 05 Nov 2026; last refreshed 06 Nov 2026 18:14 (22 minutes ago).
10 Aug 2026Range USD 319.45 – 484.9205 Nov 2026
Latest news
Headlines provided by EODHD. Articles may mention multiple companies and are not investment recommendations.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 74 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue -0.3% a year | 4 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 0.8x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 14% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Energy
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPC (this company) | USD 377.32 | 8.1% | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.0% | 74 |
| HBR.L Harbour Energy plc | GBP 2.63 | 61.8% | – | 1.4 | 7.9% | 92 |
| FANG Diamondback Energy | USD 179.58 | 36.7% | 24.4 | 1.3 | 2.4% | 100 |
| SHEL.L Shell plc | GBP 37.23 | 32.4% | 8.6 | 1.4 | 3.0% | 84 |
| AKSO.OL Aker Solutions ASA | NOK 36.00 | 22.7% | 6.8 | 1.5 | 9.1% | 75 |
| BP.L BP p.l.c. | GBP 5.59 | 18.4% | – | – | 4.4% | 69 |
| BWLPG.OL BW LPG Limited | NOK 203.60 | 9.4% | 7.4 | 1.7 | 1.3% | 100 |
| EOG EOG Resources | USD 144.89 | 6.1% | 11.1 | 2.4 | 2.8% | 92 |
| TTE.PA TotalEnergies SE | EUR 79.65 | 4.9% | 9.0 | 1.5 | 4.3% | 84 |
| Peer median | 8.8 | 1.5 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 4.00 per share · yield 1.06% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 3.000 |
| 2025 | 3.730 |
| 2024 | 3.385 |
| 2023 | 3.075 |
| 2022 | 2.490 |
| 2021 | 2.320 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 18:30
| Revenue | USD 175,168,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 25,150,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 21,839,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 14,631,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 20,842,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 4,407,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 34,454,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 13,609,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD 12,947,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 280,000,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 4.1571 |