Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

PepsiCo (PEP)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:59.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 142.71. Growth begins at 3.6% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 19.6%, net 11.1%, free cash flow 10.7% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 5.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (2.5%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 91.87Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 59.37 to USD 152.27
-36%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

3.8%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 130.17BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 14.45BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 13.87BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 7.64Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 138.57Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 142.71
7.1%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 4.63B USD 9.26B USD 13.90B USD 18.53B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -2.5% USD 10.28B -0.2%
Base 2.5% USD 13.87B 2.9%
Bull 7.5% USD 18.53B 5.9%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 98.24BUSD 19.27BUSD 10.91BUSD 10.47B 7.987.665.7716.31142.71
Year 12.5% USD 100.69BUSD 19.75BUSD 11.18BUSD 10.73B 8.187.855.9118.58138.45
Year 23.0% USD 103.70BUSD 20.34BUSD 11.51BUSD 11.05B 8.428.096.0920.91134.55
Year 33.4% USD 107.19BUSD 21.02BUSD 11.90BUSD 11.43B 8.718.366.2923.33130.75
Year 43.2% USD 110.65BUSD 21.70BUSD 12.28BUSD 11.79B 8.998.636.4925.82126.38
Year 53.1% USD 114.07BUSD 22.37BUSD 12.66BUSD 12.16B 9.268.896.6928.39121.43
Year 63.0% USD 117.44BUSD 23.03BUSD 13.04BUSD 12.52B 9.549.166.8931.04125.01
Year 72.8% USD 120.74BUSD 23.68BUSD 13.40BUSD 12.87B 9.819.417.0933.76128.53
Year 82.7% USD 123.97BUSD 24.31BUSD 13.76BUSD 13.21B 10.079.677.2836.55131.97
Year 92.5% USD 127.12BUSD 24.93BUSD 14.11BUSD 13.55B 10.329.917.4639.42135.32
Year 102.4% USD 130.17BUSD 25.53BUSD 14.45BUSD 13.87B 10.5710.157.6442.35138.57

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.