PepsiCo
PepsiCo, Inc. engages in the manufacture, marketing, distribution, and sale of various beverages and convenient foods worldwide. The company operates through six segments: PepsiCo Foods North America; PepsiCo Beverages North America; International Beverages Franchise; Europe, Middle East and Africa…
PepsiCo, Inc. engages in the manufacture, marketing, distribution, and sale of various beverages and convenient foods worldwide. The company operates through six segments: PepsiCo Foods North America; PepsiCo Beverages North America; International Beverages Franchise; Europe, Middle East and Africa; Latin America Foods; and Asia Pacific Foods. It offers cereals, chips, dips, granola bars, oatmeal, pasta, rice, and syrups and mixes; refrigerated dips and spreads; beverage concentrates, fountain syrups, and finished goods; and ready-to-drink tea and coffee products. The company also provides SodaStream sparkling water makers and related products, as well as various dairy products under the Agusha, Chudo, and Domik v Derevne brands. It serves wholesale and other distributors, foodservice customers, grocery stores, drug stores, convenience stores, discount/dollar stores, mass merchandisers, membership stores, hard discounters, e-commerce retailers and authorized independent bottlers, and others through a network of direct-store-delivery, customer warehouse, and distributor networks, as well as directly to consumers through e-commerce platforms and retailers. PepsiCo, Inc. was founded in 1898 and is based in Purchase, New York.Looks overvalued
Other models: USD 57.06–103.57 (median 90.37). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price above modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using Fiscal year 2025 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 3.64% growth, 2.4% terminal growth, and 9.2% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 3.64%, discount rate 9.20%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 3.6% (sector default 5.3%, own revenue history 4.3%, analyst revenue consensus 2.5%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 7.5% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 2.5% a year; the growth assumption used is 3.6%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 61.66 (-56.8%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 90.37 (-36.7%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 61.66 (-56.8%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 57.06 (-60.0%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 103.57 (-27.4%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 61.49 (-56.9%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 240.47 (+68.5%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 37.95 | -276.0% |
| Base USD 61.66 | -131.5% |
| Bull USD 105.72 | -35.0% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 142.71 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.4%, discount 9.2%).
Compare: the market implies 19.6% a year, this model assumes 3.6%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.4% | 78.16 | 60.21 | 47.54 | 38.10 | 30.81 |
| 1.6% | 88.13 | 68.32 | 54.34 | 43.94 | 35.90 |
| 3.6% | 98.87 | 77.06 | 61.66 | 50.21 | 41.37 |
| 5.6% | 110.44 | 86.45 | 69.53 | 56.95 | 47.24 |
| 7.6% | 122.87 | 96.55 | 77.98 | 64.19 | 53.54 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 82 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +3.3% a year | 12 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 1.9x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 19% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Staples
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEP (this company) | USD 142.71 | -48.9% | 17.8 | 8.7 | 4.1% | 82 |
| ORK.OL Orkla ASA | NOK 103.30 | 31.4% | 14.7 | 2.4 | 9.7% | 82 |
| WN.TO George Weston Limited | CAD 109.72 | 26.2% | 39.8 | 9.1 | 1.2% | 72 |
| KHC Kraft Heinz | USD 25.32 | 25.2% | – | 0.8 | 6.3% | 36 |
| CA.PA Carrefour SA | EUR 13.59 | 24.1% | 29.1 | 0.8 | 8.7% | 72 |
| ABF.L Associated British Foods plc | GBP 19.83 | 19.1% | 15.0 | 1.2 | 3.2% | 82 |
| ADM Archer Daniels Midland | USD 70.47 | 16.8% | 13.7 | 1.4 | 3.0% | 64 |
| AXFO.ST Axfood AB | SEK 281.90 | 8.5% | 24.8 | 8.1 | 3.1% | 70 |
| GIS General Mills | USD 36.46 | 3.4% | – | 2.6 | 6.7% | 52 |
| Peer median | 19.9 | 1.9 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 5.81 per share · yield 4.07% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 4.383 |
| 2025 | 5.624 |
| 2024 | 5.330 |
| 2023 | 4.945 |
| 2022 | 4.525 |
| 2021 | 4.248 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · SEC EDGAR annual filings · period ended 27 Dec 2025
| Revenue | USD 93,925,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 14,949,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 11,498,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 8,240,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 7,672,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD -4,415,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 46,351,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 9,159,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD -4,815,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 1,373,000,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 5.6225 |