Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Progressive Corporation (PGR)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 13:10.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 233.17. Growth begins at 8.1% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 16.6%, net 12.7%, free cash flow 16.6% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (5.3%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 252.76Model fair value (Earnings-based DCF); range USD 187.07 to USD 370.71
8%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Dividend discount model disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Dividend discount model value.

3.0%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 147.47BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 15.08BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 24.48BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 0.52Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 308.94Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 233.17
18.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Net income over time

USD 0 USD 5.23B USD 10.47B USD 15.70B USD 20.94B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Net income in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -0.7% USD 10.72B -0.8%
Base 5.3% USD 15.08B 2.6%
Bull 11.3% USD 20.94B 6.1%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 91.72BUSD 15.25BUSD 11.62BUSD 15.22B 19.9626.150.4059.23233.17
Year 15.3% USD 96.61BUSD 16.06BUSD 11.77BUSD 16.04B 20.2127.540.4179.04237.11
Year 26.4% USD 102.80BUSD 17.09BUSD 12.02BUSD 17.06B 20.6529.310.4199.28243.19
Year 36.8% USD 109.84BUSD 18.26BUSD 12.31BUSD 18.23B 21.1431.310.42119.99250.02
Year 46.2% USD 116.66BUSD 19.39BUSD 12.50BUSD 19.36B 21.4733.260.43141.03255.03
Year 55.6% USD 123.17BUSD 20.48BUSD 12.60BUSD 20.44B 21.6435.120.43162.24258.03
Year 64.9% USD 129.25BUSD 21.49BUSD 13.22BUSD 21.45B 22.7136.850.45184.49270.78
Year 74.3% USD 134.82BUSD 22.41BUSD 13.79BUSD 22.38B 23.6838.440.47207.69282.44
Year 83.7% USD 139.77BUSD 23.24BUSD 14.29BUSD 23.20B 24.5539.850.49231.75292.81
Year 93.0% USD 144.01BUSD 23.94BUSD 14.73BUSD 23.90B 25.3041.060.51256.55301.70
Year 102.4% USD 147.47BUSD 24.52BUSD 15.08BUSD 24.48B 25.9042.040.52281.93308.94

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.