Progressive Corporation
The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. It writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. The company also writes auto-rela…
The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. It writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. The company also writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance for comprising dump trucks, log trucks, garbage trucks, tractors, trailers, straight trucks, tow trucks and wreckers, vans, pick-up trucks, and autos; business-related general liability and commercial property insurance for small businesses; and workers' compensation insurance for the transportation industry. In addition, it offers other specialty property-casualty insurance and provides related services; personal property reinsurance products; and involved in investment activities. It sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as online and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.Priced within the modelled range
Other models: USD 273.47–415.95 (median 344.71). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Banks, insurers and other financials are valued on the dividends they pay, not on free cash flow.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Uses reported dividends of USD 13.9000 per share from Fiscal year 2025, with 2.4% perpetual growth (base growth capped at the terminal rate) and 9.6% discount rates. The range varies growth and discount assumptions by 1 percentage point; it is illustrative, not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 8.12%, discount rate 9.60%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 8.1% (sector default 5.4%, own revenue history 16.4%, analyst revenue consensus 5.3%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 9.1% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 5.3% a year; the growth assumption used is 8.1%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Banks, insurers and other financials are valued on the dividends they pay, not on free cash flow.
Compare models- Recommended: Dividend discount model — USD 197.69 (-15.2%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 273.47 (+17.3%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 529.03 (+126.9%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 415.95 (+78.4%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: EBITDA is missing, zero or negative.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 525.18 (+125.2%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 242.10 (+3.8%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 153.20 | -52.2% |
| Base USD 197.69 | -17.9% |
| Bull USD 276.40 | 15.6% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 233.17 the market implies perpetual dividend growth of about this rate (discount rate 9.6%).
Compare: the market implies 3.4% a year, this model assumes 2.4%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Dividend discount model value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price. Dividend growth cannot exceed the long-run rate, so duplicate capped scenarios are omitted.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 11.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.6% | 148.67 | 134.09 | 122.12 | 112.11 | 103.62 |
| 0.4% | 193.83 | 170.19 | 151.69 | 136.82 | 124.60 |
| 2.4% | 273.72 | 229.57 | 197.69 | 173.58 | 154.71 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 100 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +16.4% a year | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Financials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGR (this company) | USD 233.17 | -17.9% | 12.1 | 4.5 | 6.0% | 100 |
| PSH.L Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. | GBP 38.88 | 68.1% | 3.7 | 0.6 | 1.3% | 76 |
| LRE.L Lancashire Holdings Limited | GBP 6.89 | 45.5% | 7.1 | 1.6 | 3.3% | 76 |
| ACA.PA Credit Agricole S.A. | EUR 15.88 | 36.0% | 6.8 | 0.7 | 6.9% | 78 |
| PRU.L Prudential plc | GBP 9.29 | 33.7% | 8.1 | 1.6 | 1.9% | 78 |
| V Visa Inc. | USD 422.59 | 33.3% | 8.9 | – | 0.2% | 100 |
| AGS.BR ageas SA/NV | EUR 77.60 | 32.5% | 8.2 | 1.5 | 5.0% | 76 |
| SYF Synchrony Financial | USD 74.07 | 29.9% | 7.2 | 1.4 | 2.1% | 100 |
| NWG.L NatWest Group plc | GBP 5.92 | 29.6% | 8.3 | 1.3 | 4.9% | 88 |
| Peer median | 7.6 | 1.4 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 13.90 per share · yield 5.96% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 13.900 |
| 2025 | 4.900 |
| 2024 | 1.150 |
| 2023 | 0.400 |
| 2022 | 0.400 |
| 2021 | 6.400 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · SEC EDGAR annual filings · period ended 31 Dec 2025
| Revenue | USD 87,671,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD |
| EBIT | USD |
| Net income | USD 11,308,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 17,200,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD -348,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 0 |
| Cash | USD |
| Working capital | USD |
| Shares outstanding | 588,100,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 13.9000 |