Progressive Corporation
The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. It writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. The company also writes auto-rela…
The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. It writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. The company also writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance for comprising dump trucks, log trucks, garbage trucks, tractors, trailers, straight trucks, tow trucks and wreckers, vans, pick-up trucks, and autos; business-related general liability and commercial property insurance for small businesses; and workers' compensation insurance for the transportation industry. In addition, it offers other specialty property-casualty insurance and provides related services; personal property reinsurance products; and involved in investment activities. It sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as online and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Dividend discount model disagrees strongly.
Other models: USD 283.91–528.11 (median 470.48). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Dividends are small or missing, and cash-flow models do not suit financials, so value is based on reinvestment-adjusted earnings.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Earnings-based DCF using TTM through 30 Sep 2026 net income, of which 70% is treated as distributable after reinvestment, with no extra debt or cash adjustment because net income is already after interest. Used because free cash flow or dividends do not give a usable base. Base assumptions are 8.12% growth, 2.4% terminal growth, and 9.6% discount; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 8.12%, discount rate 9.60%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 8.1% (sector default 5.4%, own revenue history 16.4%, analyst revenue consensus 5.3%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 5.3% a year; the growth assumption used is 8.1%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Dividends are small or missing, and cash-flow models do not suit financials, so value is based on reinvestment-adjusted earnings.
Compare models- Recommended: Earnings-based DCF — USD 252.76 (+8.4%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 283.91 (+21.8%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 629.22 (+169.9%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 528.11 (+126.5%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 470.48 (+101.8%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 625.77 (+168.4%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 935.83 (+301.3%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 187.07 | -24.6% |
| Base USD 252.76 | 7.8% |
| Bull USD 370.71 | 37.1% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 233.17 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.4%, discount 9.6%).
Compare: the market implies 6.2% a year, this model assumes 8.1%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
How the Earnings-based DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 11.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.1% | 296.83 | 248.64 | 213.84 | 187.53 | 166.96 |
| 6.1% | 323.80 | 270.84 | 232.61 | 203.73 | 181.14 |
| 8.1% | 352.77 | 294.68 | 252.76 | 221.10 | 196.35 |
| 10.1% | 383.87 | 320.26 | 274.36 | 239.71 | 212.63 |
| 12.1% | 417.21 | 347.66 | 297.49 | 259.63 | 230.04 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 90 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +16.6% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net cash | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 17% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Financials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGR (this company) | USD 233.17 | 7.8% | 11.7 | 3.9 | 0.2% | 90 |
| PSH.L Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. | GBP 38.88 | 68.1% | 3.7 | 0.6 | 1.3% | 76 |
| LRE.L Lancashire Holdings Limited | GBP 6.89 | 45.5% | 7.1 | 1.6 | 3.3% | 76 |
| ACA.PA Credit Agricole S.A. | EUR 15.88 | 36.0% | 6.8 | 0.7 | 6.9% | 78 |
| PRU.L Prudential plc | GBP 9.29 | 33.8% | 8.1 | 1.6 | 1.9% | 78 |
| V Visa Inc. | USD 422.59 | 33.3% | 8.9 | – | 0.2% | 100 |
| AGS.BR ageas SA/NV | EUR 77.60 | 32.5% | 8.2 | 1.5 | 5.0% | 76 |
| SYF Synchrony Financial | USD 74.07 | 29.9% | 7.2 | 1.4 | 2.1% | 100 |
| NWG.L NatWest Group plc | GBP 5.92 | 29.6% | 8.3 | 1.3 | 4.9% | 88 |
| Peer median | 7.6 | 1.4 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 13.90 per share · yield 5.96% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 13.900 |
| 2025 | 4.900 |
| 2024 | 1.150 |
| 2023 | 0.400 |
| 2022 | 0.400 |
| 2021 | 6.400 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:10
| Revenue | USD 91,717,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 15,247,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 15,007,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 11,622,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 15,224,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 438,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 8,389,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 99,338,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD 38,951,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 582,200,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 0.4000 |