Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

PayPal (PYPL)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:41.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 58.96. Growth begins at 5.2% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 21.8%, net 13.8%, free cash flow 18.4% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 5.3 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (4.2%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 61.66Model fair value (Earnings-based DCF); range USD 45.73 to USD 90.26
5%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Dividend discount model disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Dividend discount model value.

4.3%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 49.04BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 6.76BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 9.01BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 0.52Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 85.28Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 58.96
17.8%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Net income over time

USD 0 USD 2.28B USD 4.57B USD 6.85B USD 9.13B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Net income in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -1.2% USD 4.95B 0.5%
Base 4.2% USD 6.76B 3.6%
Bull 9.5% USD 9.13B 6.8%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 34.30BUSD 7.47BUSD 4.73BUSD 6.30B 5.517.340.3622.7158.96
Year 14.2% USD 35.72BUSD 7.78BUSD 4.92BUSD 6.56B 5.747.650.3828.0761.55
Year 24.5% USD 37.33BUSD 8.13BUSD 5.14BUSD 6.86B 6.007.990.3933.6764.47
Year 34.5% USD 39.02BUSD 8.50BUSD 5.38BUSD 7.17B 6.278.350.4139.5367.55
Year 44.2% USD 40.68BUSD 8.86BUSD 5.61BUSD 7.47B 6.538.710.4345.6470.58
Year 53.9% USD 42.28BUSD 9.21BUSD 5.83BUSD 7.77B 6.799.050.4551.9873.52
Year 63.6% USD 43.81BUSD 9.54BUSD 6.04BUSD 8.05B 7.049.380.4658.5676.18
Year 73.3% USD 45.27BUSD 9.86BUSD 6.24BUSD 8.31B 7.279.690.4865.3578.71
Year 83.0% USD 46.63BUSD 10.16BUSD 6.43BUSD 8.56B 7.499.980.4972.3581.09
Year 92.7% USD 47.89BUSD 10.43BUSD 6.60BUSD 8.80B 7.6910.250.5079.5483.28
Year 102.4% USD 49.04BUSD 10.68BUSD 6.76BUSD 9.01B 7.8810.500.5286.9085.28

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.