PayPal
PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments for merchants and consumers worldwide. The company operates a two-sided network at scale that connects merchants and consumers that enables its customers to connect, transact, and send and receive payments through on…
PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments for merchants and consumers worldwide. The company operates a two-sided network at scale that connects merchants and consumers that enables its customers to connect, transact, and send and receive payments through online and in person, as well as transfer and withdraw funds using various funding sources, such as bank accounts, PayPal or Venmo account balance, consumer credit and debit products, credit and debit cards, and cryptocurrencies, as well as other stored value products, including gift cards and eligible rewards. It provides payment solutions under the PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Hyperwallet, Honey, and Paidy names. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Dividend discount model disagrees strongly.
Other models: USD 76.89–85.12 (median 79.75). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Dividends are small or missing, and cash-flow models do not suit financials, so value is based on reinvestment-adjusted earnings.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Earnings-based DCF using Fiscal year 2025 net income, of which 70% is treated as distributable after reinvestment, with no extra debt or cash adjustment because net income is already after interest. Used because free cash flow or dividends do not give a usable base. Base assumptions are 5.16% growth, 2.4% terminal growth, and 9.6% discount; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 5.16%, discount rate 9.60%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 5.2% (sector default 5.4%, own revenue history 6.9%, analyst revenue consensus 4.2%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 4.2% a year; the growth assumption used is 5.2%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Dividends are small or missing, and cash-flow models do not suit financials, so value is based on reinvestment-adjusted earnings.
Compare models- Recommended: Earnings-based DCF — USD 60.51 (+2.6%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 76.89 (+30.4%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 89.91 (+52.5%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 79.75 (+35.3%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 85.12 (+44.4%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 89.54 (+51.9%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 178.57 (+202.9%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 44.87 | -31.4% |
| Base USD 60.51 | 2.6% |
| Bull USD 88.57 | 33.4% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 58.96 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.4%, discount 9.6%).
Compare: the market implies 4.5% a year, this model assumes 5.2%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
How the Earnings-based DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 11.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2% | 70.52 | 59.20 | 51.03 | 44.84 | 40.00 |
| 3.2% | 77.07 | 64.60 | 55.60 | 48.79 | 43.46 |
| 5.2% | 84.12 | 70.41 | 60.51 | 53.03 | 47.18 |
| 7.2% | 91.70 | 76.65 | 65.78 | 57.58 | 51.16 |
| 9.2% | 99.84 | 83.34 | 71.44 | 62.45 | 55.43 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 90 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +5.7% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 0.9x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 20% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Financials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PYPL (this company) | USD 58.96 | 7.4% | 10.4 | 2.5 | 0.2% | 90 |
| PSH.L Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. | GBP 38.88 | 68.1% | 3.7 | 0.6 | 1.3% | 76 |
| LRE.L Lancashire Holdings Limited | GBP 6.89 | 45.5% | 7.1 | 1.6 | 3.3% | 76 |
| ACA.PA Credit Agricole S.A. | EUR 15.88 | 36.0% | 6.8 | 0.7 | 6.9% | 78 |
| PRU.L Prudential plc | GBP 9.29 | 33.7% | 8.1 | 1.6 | 1.9% | 78 |
| V Visa Inc. | USD 422.59 | 33.3% | 8.9 | – | 0.2% | 100 |
| AGS.BR ageas SA/NV | EUR 77.60 | 32.5% | 8.2 | 1.5 | 5.0% | 76 |
| SYF Synchrony Financial | USD 74.07 | 29.9% | 7.2 | 1.4 | 2.1% | 100 |
| NWG.L NatWest Group plc | GBP 5.92 | 29.6% | 8.3 | 1.3 | 4.9% | 88 |
| Peer median | 7.6 | 1.4 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 0.56 per share · yield 0.95% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 0.420 |
| 2025 | 0.140 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · SEC EDGAR annual filings · period ended 31 Dec 2025
| Revenue | USD 33,172,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 7,028,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 6,065,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 5,233,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 5,564,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD -852,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 9,987,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 8,049,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD 13,316,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 968,000,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 0.1400 |