Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A. (SGO.PA)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 14:29.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 73.72. Growth begins at 2.8% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 15.9%, net 6.2%, free cash flow 7.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (1.8%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 78.06Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range EUR 53.09 to EUR 122.49
6%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

5.4%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 60.06BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 3.73BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 4.48BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 2.81Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 99.46Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 73.72
12.2%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

EUR 0 EUR 1.57B EUR 3.14B EUR 4.70B EUR 6.27B FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -4.2% EUR 3.15B -0.9%
Base 1.8% EUR 4.48B 2.6%
Bull 7.8% EUR 6.27B 6.1%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– EUR 46.48BEUR 7.38BEUR 2.88BEUR 3.46B 5.786.952.1849.2473.72
Year 11.8% EUR 47.33BEUR 7.52BEUR 2.94BEUR 3.53B 5.897.082.2252.9275.72
Year 22.3% EUR 48.42BEUR 7.69BEUR 3.00BEUR 3.61B 6.037.242.2756.6778.14
Year 32.8% EUR 49.75BEUR 7.90BEUR 3.09BEUR 3.71B 6.197.442.3360.5381.00
Year 42.8% EUR 51.12BEUR 8.12BEUR 3.17BEUR 3.81B 6.367.642.3964.5083.94
Year 52.7% EUR 52.53BEUR 8.34BEUR 3.26BEUR 3.91B 6.547.852.4668.5886.98
Year 62.7% EUR 53.96BEUR 8.57BEUR 3.35BEUR 4.02B 6.728.072.5372.7789.36
Year 72.7% EUR 55.43BEUR 8.81BEUR 3.44BEUR 4.13B 6.908.292.6077.0791.80
Year 82.7% EUR 56.94BEUR 9.05BEUR 3.53BEUR 4.24B 7.098.512.6781.4994.29
Year 92.7% EUR 58.48BEUR 9.29BEUR 3.63BEUR 4.36B 7.288.742.7486.0396.85
Year 102.7% EUR 60.06BEUR 9.54BEUR 3.73BEUR 4.48B 7.478.982.8190.6999.46

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.