Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

United Parcel Service (UPS)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 13:10.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 111.04. Growth begins at 2.6% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 11.5%, net 4.8%, free cash flow 7.0% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (3.3%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 88.54Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range USD 68.96 to USD 122.70
-20%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

5.2%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 120.02BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 5.81BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 8.38BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 6.82Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 123.69Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 111.04
8.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

USD 0.00 USD 2.39 USD 4.77 USD 7.16 USD 9.54 FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -2.7% USD 4.80 -2.8%
Base 3.3% USD 6.82 0.7%
Bull 9.3% USD 9.54 4.1%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 91.37BUSD 10.55BUSD 4.42BUSD 6.38B 5.197.496.3617.60111.04
Year 13.3% USD 94.38BUSD 10.90BUSD 4.57BUSD 6.59B 5.367.735.3617.60111.22
Year 23.0% USD 97.19BUSD 11.22BUSD 4.70BUSD 6.79B 5.527.965.5217.60110.93
Year 32.6% USD 99.76BUSD 11.52BUSD 4.83BUSD 6.96B 5.678.175.6717.60110.18
Year 42.7% USD 102.40BUSD 11.82BUSD 4.96BUSD 7.15B 5.828.395.8217.60109.32
Year 52.7% USD 105.13BUSD 12.14BUSD 5.09BUSD 7.34B 5.978.615.9717.60108.34
Year 62.7% USD 107.93BUSD 12.46BUSD 5.22BUSD 7.54B 6.138.846.1317.60111.24
Year 72.7% USD 110.82BUSD 12.79BUSD 5.36BUSD 7.74B 6.309.086.3017.60114.21
Year 82.7% USD 113.80BUSD 13.14BUSD 5.51BUSD 7.94B 6.469.336.4617.60117.28
Year 92.7% USD 116.86BUSD 13.49BUSD 5.66BUSD 8.16B 6.649.586.6417.60120.44
Year 102.7% USD 120.02BUSD 13.86BUSD 5.81BUSD 8.38B 6.829.836.8217.60123.69

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.