United Parcel Service
United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, docum…
United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services. The International Package segment provides small package operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America, and Asia. The company offers a range of guaranteed day- and time-definite international transportation services; day-definite services; cross-border ground package delivery; contract-only, e-commerce solutions for non-urgent, and cross-border shipments; and international service for urgent and palletized shipments. It also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage and insurance, mail services, healthcare logistics, distribution, and post-sales services. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.Priced within the modelled range
Other models: USD 58.05–132.60 (median 91.28). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Uses reported dividends of USD 6.5600 per share from Fiscal year 2025, with 2.63% perpetual growth (base growth capped at the terminal rate) and 10% discount rates. The range varies growth and discount assumptions by 1 percentage point; it is illustrative, not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 2.63%, discount rate 10%, terminal growth 2.70% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 2.6% (sector default 6.2%, own revenue history -2.3%, analyst revenue consensus 3.3%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 9.3% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 3.3% a year; the growth assumption used is 2.6%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.
Compare models- Recommended: Dividend discount model — USD 91.35 (-17.7%)
-
EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 91.28 (-17.8%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
-
DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 57.81 (-47.9%)
Not used: Not chosen: Dividend discount model ranks ahead of it for this company.
-
FCFF (steady state)
— USD 58.05 (-47.7%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
-
EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 132.60 (+19.4%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
-
Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 57.82 (-47.9%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
-
EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 289.74 (+160.9%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 71.15 | -56.1% |
| Base USD 91.35 | -21.6% |
| Bull USD 126.59 | 12.3% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 111.04 the market implies perpetual dividend growth of about this rate (discount rate 10.0%).
Compare: the market implies 3.9% a year, this model assumes 2.6%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Dividend discount model value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price. Dividend growth cannot exceed the long-run rate, so duplicate capped scenarios are omitted.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.4% | 69.05 | 62.39 | 56.91 | 52.30 | 48.39 |
| 0.6% | 89.57 | 78.87 | 70.45 | 63.66 | 58.06 |
| 2.6% | 125.37 | 105.69 | 91.35 | 80.44 | 71.85 |
| 2.7% | 127.12 | 106.94 | 92.29 | 81.17 | 72.44 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 74 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue -2.3% a year | 4 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net cash | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 10% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Industrials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS (this company) | USD 111.04 | -21.6% | 17.9 | 5.3 | 5.9% | 74 |
| EZJ.L easyJet plc | GBP 6.88 | 74.3% | 10.6 | 1.5 | 1.7% | 78 |
| WAWI.OL Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA | NOK 160.80 | 64.6% | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.3% | 100 |
| IAG.L International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. | GBP 4.37 | 58.9% | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.8% | 92 |
| TPK.L Travis Perkins plc | GBP 6.54 | 54.7% | – | 0.8 | 2.1% | 46 |
| SRP.L Serco Group plc | GBP 2.77 | 46.2% | 19.7 | 3.3 | 1.5% | 82 |
| DFDS.CO DFDS A/S | DKK 157.30 | 45.9% | – | 0.6 | – | 64 |
| DG.PA VINCI SA | EUR 111.75 | 42.2% | 12.9 | 2.1 | 4.2% | 90 |
| HAFNI.OL Hafnia Limited | NOK 89.00 | 40.8% | 7.2 | 1.8 | 1.2% | 100 |
| Peer median | 9.3 | 1.9 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 6.56 per share · yield 5.91% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 4.920 |
| 2025 | 6.560 |
| 2024 | 6.520 |
| 2023 | 6.480 |
| 2022 | 6.080 |
| 2021 | 4.080 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · SEC EDGAR annual filings · period ended 31 Dec 2025
| Revenue | USD 88,661,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 10,867,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 7,867,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 5,572,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 4,765,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD -3,685,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 23,585,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 5,887,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD 3,425,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 850,000,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 6.5600 |