United Parcel Service
United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, docum…
United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services. The International Package segment provides small package operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America, and Asia. The company offers a range of guaranteed day- and time-definite international transportation services; day-definite services; cross-border ground package delivery; contract-only, e-commerce solutions for non-urgent, and cross-border shipments; and international service for urgent and palletized shipments. It also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage and insurance, mail services, healthcare logistics, distribution, and post-sales services. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.After signing in, return here and select “Add to watchlist”. Saving companies requires a verified email address.
Priced within the modelled range
Other models: USD 72.27–121.04 (median 77.81). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.
Start with the price and fair value range, then review the data dates and assumptions below. Estimates are not predictions or investment advice.
Market price within modeled range
Uses reported dividends of USD 6.3580 per share from TTM through 30 Sep 2026, with 2.63% perpetual growth (base growth capped at the terminal rate) and 10% discount rates. The range varies growth and discount assumptions by 1 percentage point; it is illustrative, not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 2.63%, discount rate 10%, terminal growth 2.70% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 2.6% (sector default 6.2%, own revenue history -2.3%, analyst revenue consensus 3.3%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 8.7% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 3.3% a year; the growth assumption used is 2.6%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.
Compare models- Recommended: Dividend discount model — USD 88.54 (-19.0%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 72.27 (-33.9%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 77.49 (-29.1%)
Not used: Not chosen: Dividend discount model ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 77.81 (-28.8%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 121.04 (+10.8%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 77.50 (-29.1%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 276.49 (+153.1%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 68.96 | -58.4% |
| Base USD 88.54 | -23.4% |
| Bull USD 122.70 | 11.0% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 109.26 the market implies perpetual dividend growth of about this rate (discount rate 10.0%).
Compare: the market implies 4.0% a year, this model assumes 2.6%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
Sensitivity: base value per share
How the Dividend discount model value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price. Dividend growth cannot exceed the long-run rate, so duplicate capped scenarios are omitted.
These are assumption-based scenarios, not a confidence interval. Scroll horizontally to see all discount rates.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.4% | 66.93 | 60.47 | 55.15 | 50.69 | 46.90 |
| 0.6% | 86.81 | 76.44 | 68.28 | 61.70 | 56.27 |
| 2.6% | 121.51 | 102.44 | 88.54 | 77.96 | 69.64 |
| 2.7% | 123.20 | 103.65 | 89.45 | 78.67 | 70.21 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
Latest news
Headlines provided by EODHD. Articles may mention multiple companies and are not investment recommendations.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 64 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue -2.3% a year | 4 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 2.2x EBITDA | 10 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 12% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Industrials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS (this company) | USD 109.26 | -23.4% | 21.1 | 6.2 | 5.8% | 64 |
| EZJ.L easyJet plc | GBP 6.84 | 74.5% | 10.6 | 1.5 | 1.7% | 78 |
| WAWI.OL Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA | NOK 160.60 | 64.8% | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.3% | 100 |
| IAG.L International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. | GBP 4.31 | 59.5% | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.8% | 92 |
| TPK.L Travis Perkins plc | GBP 6.45 | 55.4% | – | 0.8 | 2.1% | 46 |
| DFDS.CO DFDS A/S | DKK 153.20 | 47.3% | – | 0.6 | – | 64 |
| SRP.L Serco Group plc | GBP 2.79 | 45.8% | 19.8 | 3.3 | 1.5% | 82 |
| DG.PA VINCI SA | EUR 110.60 | 42.8% | 12.8 | 2.0 | 4.2% | 90 |
| HAFNI.OL Hafnia Limited | NOK 88.95 | 40.9% | 7.2 | 1.8 | 1.2% | 100 |
| Peer median | 9.3 | 1.9 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 6.56 per share · yield 6.00% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 4.920 |
| 2025 | 6.560 |
| 2024 | 6.520 |
| 2023 | 6.480 |
| 2022 | 6.080 |
| 2021 | 4.080 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:10
| Revenue | USD 91,368,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 10,548,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 6,646,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 4,422,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 6,379,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 2,937,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 30,290,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 6,837,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD 3,730,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 852,000,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 6.3580 |