Comfort Systems USA
Comfort Systems USA, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Mechanical and E…
Comfort Systems USA, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Mechanical and Electrical. It offers heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, as well as plumbing, electrical, piping and controls, off-site construction, monitoring, and fire protection. The company is also involved in the design, engineering, integration, installation, and start-up of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) and related systems in new buildings; and renovation, expansion, maintenance, monitoring, repair, and replacement of systems in existing buildings. In addition, it provides remote monitoring of power usage, temperature, pressure, humidity and air flow for MEP and other building systems. The company serves building owners and developers, general contractors, architects, consulting engineers, and property managers in the commercial, industrial, and institutional markets. Comfort Systems USA, Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart.
Other models: USD 653.09–1027.83 (median 824.83). The recommended value is 31% above that median, so treat the upside with extra caution.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using a three-year average of free cash flow, because the latest figure is depressed by heavy investment or one-off items, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 22.68% growth, 2.7% terminal growth, and 10% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 22.68%, discount rate 10%, terminal growth 2.70% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 22.7% (sector default 6.2%, own revenue history 31.2%, analyst revenue consensus 26.7%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 26.7% a year; the growth assumption used is 22.7%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 1080.82 (+5.4%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 653.09 (-36.3%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 2224.15 (+117.0%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 1027.83 (+0.3%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 824.83 (-19.5%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 2203.37 (+115.0%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 2959.48 (+188.7%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 810.51 | -26.5% |
| Base USD 1080.82 | 5.2% |
| Bull USD 1562.69 | 34.4% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 1025.02 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.7%, discount 10.0%).
Compare: the market implies 21.2% a year, this model assumes 22.7%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.7% | 1293.15 | 1085.83 | 935.63 | 821.89 | 732.84 |
| 20.7% | 1394.34 | 1169.09 | 1005.93 | 882.41 | 785.72 |
| 22.7% | 1502.22 | 1257.81 | 1080.82 | 946.84 | 842.00 |
| 24.7% | 1617.12 | 1352.27 | 1160.51 | 1015.39 | 901.85 |
| 26.7% | 1739.38 | 1452.74 | 1245.24 | 1088.24 | 965.42 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 90 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +31.9% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net cash | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 18% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Industrials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIX (this company) | USD 1025.02 | 5.2% | 22.1 | 10.8 | 0.3% | 90 |
| EZJ.L easyJet plc | GBP 6.84 | 74.5% | 10.6 | 1.5 | 1.7% | 78 |
| WAWI.OL Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA | NOK 160.60 | 64.7% | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.3% | 100 |
| IAG.L International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. | GBP 4.31 | 59.5% | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.8% | 92 |
| TPK.L Travis Perkins plc | GBP 6.45 | 55.4% | – | 0.8 | 2.1% | 46 |
| DFDS.CO DFDS A/S | DKK 153.20 | 47.3% | – | 0.6 | – | 64 |
| SRP.L Serco Group plc | GBP 2.79 | 45.8% | 19.8 | 3.3 | 1.5% | 82 |
| DG.PA VINCI SA | EUR 110.60 | 42.8% | 12.8 | 2.0 | 4.2% | 90 |
| HAFNI.OL Hafnia Limited | NOK 88.95 | 40.9% | 7.2 | 1.8 | 1.2% | 100 |
| Peer median | 9.2 | 1.9 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 3.00 per share · yield 0.29% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 2.400 |
| 2025 | 1.950 |
| 2024 | 1.200 |
| 2023 | 0.850 |
| 2022 | 0.560 |
| 2021 | 0.480 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 12:55
| Revenue | USD 12,543,357,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 2,267,562,000 |
| EBIT | USD 2,100,138,000 |
| Net income | USD 1,631,830,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 2,441,393,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 565,527,000 |
| Debt | USD 374,433,000 |
| Cash | USD 2,158,027,000 |
| Working capital | USD 864,619,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 35,152,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 3.0025 |