FANG

Diamondback Energy

Diamondback Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, develops, explores, and exploits unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas, the United States. The company primarily focuses on the development of the Spraberry and Wolfcamp… Diamondback Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, develops, explores, and exploits unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas, the United States. The company primarily focuses on the development of the Spraberry and Wolfcamp formations of the Midland Basin; and the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring formations of the Delaware Basin, both of which are part of the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico. Diamondback Energy, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Midland, Texas.
Market price
USD 179.58
Undervalued by 131.9%
Base value (FCFF (steady state)) is 131.9% above the market price
Data: Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; FY2025, period ended 31 Dec 2025 from SEC EDGAR (downloaded 17 h ago). Last earnings: 02 Nov 2026
Verdict

Looks undervalued

PriceUSD 179.58
Fair value range306.33–620.04base 416.36
Estimate reliabilityLow
5-year outlook–

5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly.

Why: Free cash flow is far below earnings (heavy investment), and even a three-year average understates value, so an EV/EBITDA multiple, which is not distorted by capex timing, fits best.

Details and the full model are below.

FCFF (steady state)

Market price below modeled range

Showing the FCFF (steady state) you selected on the company card, using 3.92% growth, 2.5% terminal growth and 9.2% discount. The range varies these assumptions slightly; it is illustrative, not investment advice.

Assumptions: growth 3.92%, discount rate 9.20%, terminal growth 2.50% (sector defaults). See a worked example.

Blended growth assumption: 3.9% (sector default 4.6%, own revenue history 21.9%, analyst revenue consensus -5.4%).

Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of -5.4% a year; the growth assumption used is 3.9%.

Adjust assumptions

Show the recommended model instead

Why this model: Free cash flow is far below earnings (heavy investment), and even a three-year average understates value, so an EV/EBITDA multiple, which is not distorted by capex timing, fits best.

Compare models
  • Recommended: EV/EBITDA (12x) — USD 214.56 (+19.5%)
  • EPS-based Gordon proxy — USD 88.06 (-51.0%)
    Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
  • DCF (trailing free cash flow) — USD 445.51 (+148.1%)
    Not used: Free cash flow is 5.3x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
  • FCFF (steady state) — USD 416.36 (+131.9%)
    Not used: Free cash flow is 5.3x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
  • EV/EBITDA (12x) — USD 214.56 (+19.5%)
  • Fade DCF (10-year growth fade) — USD 444.49 (+147.5%)
    Not used: Free cash flow is 5.3x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
  • EV/Sales (Rule of 40) — USD 429.77 (+139.3%)
    Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
Illustrative range / share USD 306.33–620.04
Base scenario / share USD 416.36
Margin of safety (share of value) Cheap even in the bear case
Bear USD 306.3341.4%
Base USD 416.3656.9%
Bull USD 620.0471.0%

Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.

Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.

Price history and fair value

No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.

More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials

Quality score: 100 / 100

Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.

Profitability5 of 5 years profitable20 / 20
Cash generationfree cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years20 / 20
Growthrevenue +17.9% a year20 / 20
Balance sheetnet debt 1.5x EBITDA20 / 20
MarginsEBITDA margin 41%20 / 20

Peers in Energy

Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.

CompanyPriceMargin of safetyP/EP/BYieldQuality
FANG (this company) USD 179.58 36.7% 24.4 1.3 2.4% 100
HBR.L Harbour Energy plc GBP 2.62 61.8% – 1.4 7.9% 92
SHEL.L Shell plc GBP 36.98 32.8% 8.6 1.4 3.0% 84
AKSO.OL Aker Solutions ASA NOK 35.92 22.8% 6.8 1.5 9.1% 75
BP.L BP p.l.c. GBP 5.54 19.2% – – 4.4% 69
BWLPG.OL BW LPG Limited NOK 208.40 7.3% 7.5 1.8 1.2% 100
EOG EOG Resources USD 144.89 6.1% 11.1 2.4 2.8% 92
TTE.PA TotalEnergies SE EUR 79.16 5.4% 8.9 1.5 4.3% 84
ENB.TO Enbridge Inc. CAD 67.33 -11.4% 19.6 2.4 5.9% 80
Peer median 8.7 1.5

Dividends

Paid in the last 12 months: USD 4.25 per share · yield 2.37% at the current price.

YearDividends per share
2026 (so far)3.250
20254.000
20248.290
20237.990
20228.960
20211.750
Sector Energy
Exchange NASDAQ
Currency USD

Annual financial statement

Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · SEC EDGAR annual filings · period ended 31 Dec 2025

RevenueUSD 15,026,000,000
EBITDAUSD 6,304,000,000
EBITUSD 1,266,000,000
Net incomeUSD 1,664,000,000
Free cash flowUSD 8,758,000,000
Capital expendituresUSD
DebtUSD 13,726,000,000
CashUSD 104,000,000
Working capitalUSD -2,685,000,000
Shares outstanding289,079,000
Reported dividends per shareUSD 4.0000