FedEx
FedEx Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Express U.S. Domestic and Express International. It provides e-commerce and digital solutions; dataworks…
FedEx Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Express U.S. Domestic and Express International. It provides e-commerce and digital solutions; dataworks; printing and shipping management, including digital printing, professional finishing, document creation, design solutions, direct mail, signs and graphics, custom-branded boxes, copying, computer rental, Wi-Fi, corporate print solutions, shredding, U.S. passport processing and renewal, and digital notarization; packing services, as well as packing supplies and boxes; document and business services; and retail access for package transportation. In addition, the company offers logistics services, air and ocean cargo transportation, specialty transportation, customs brokerage, trade management tools and data, and door-to-door solutions; and third party logistics and supply chain management solutions, such as inbound logistics, warehousing and distribution, fulfillment, contract packaging and product configuration, systems integration, returns process and disposition, test, repair, refurbishment, and product liquidation. Further, it provides sales, marketing, administrative, information technology, and back-office support services. FedEx Corporation was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.Priced within the modelled range
Other models: USD 229.57–392.51 (median 233.59). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using TTM through 31 Aug 2026 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 3.7% growth, 2.7% terminal growth, and 10% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 3.70%, discount rate 10%, terminal growth 2.70% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 3.7% (sector default 6.2%, own revenue history 0.3%, analyst revenue consensus 4.1%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 7.5% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 4.1% a year; the growth assumption used is 3.7%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 247.90 (-20.8%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 229.57 (-26.7%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 247.90 (-20.8%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 233.59 (-25.4%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 392.51 (+25.4%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 247.35 (-21.0%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 1013.27 (+223.6%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 160.22 | -95.4% |
| Base USD 247.90 | -26.3% |
| Bull USD 403.93 | 22.5% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 313.09 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.7%, discount 10.0%).
Compare: the market implies 7.9% a year, this model assumes 3.7%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
Sensitivity: base value per share
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
These are assumption-based scenarios, not a confidence interval. Scroll horizontally to see all discount rates.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.3% | 301.07 | 238.87 | 193.68 | 159.36 | 132.40 |
| 1.7% | 338.26 | 269.63 | 219.80 | 181.96 | 152.26 |
| 3.7% | 378.32 | 302.75 | 247.90 | 206.27 | 173.60 |
| 5.7% | 421.43 | 338.37 | 278.09 | 232.37 | 196.49 |
| 7.7% | 467.77 | 376.63 | 310.51 | 260.36 | 221.04 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 72 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +1.4% a year | 12 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 2.4x EBITDA | 10 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 10% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Industrials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDX (this company) | USD 313.09 | -26.3% | 19.2 | 2.2 | 1.8% | 72 |
| EZJ.L easyJet plc | GBP 6.84 | 74.5% | 10.6 | 1.5 | 1.7% | 78 |
| WAWI.OL Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA | NOK 160.60 | 64.7% | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.3% | 100 |
| IAG.L International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. | GBP 4.31 | 59.5% | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.8% | 92 |
| TPK.L Travis Perkins plc | GBP 6.45 | 55.4% | – | 0.8 | 2.1% | 46 |
| DFDS.CO DFDS A/S | DKK 153.20 | 47.3% | – | 0.6 | – | 64 |
| SRP.L Serco Group plc | GBP 2.79 | 45.8% | 19.8 | 3.3 | 1.5% | 82 |
| DG.PA VINCI SA | EUR 110.60 | 42.8% | 12.8 | 2.0 | 4.2% | 90 |
| HAFNI.OL Hafnia Limited | NOK 88.95 | 40.9% | 7.2 | 1.8 | 1.2% | 100 |
| Peer median | 9.2 | 1.9 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 4.78 per share · yield 1.53% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 3.608 |
| 2025 | 4.617 |
| 2024 | 4.351 |
| 2023 | 3.973 |
| 2022 | 3.384 |
| 2021 | 2.337 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 31 Aug 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 12:55
| Revenue | USD 95,331,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 9,727,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 5,483,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 3,900,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 5,597,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 3,802,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 34,128,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 11,215,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD 6,163,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 239,000,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 5.5272 |