Altria
Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. It offers cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; large cigars and pipe tobacco under the Black & Mild brand; moist smokeless tobacco and oral tobacco products under…
Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. It offers cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; large cigars and pipe tobacco under the Black & Mild brand; moist smokeless tobacco and oral tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands; oral nicotine pouches under the on! brand; and e-vapor products under the NJOY ACE brand. The company sells its products to distributors, as well as large retail organizations, such as chain stores. Altria Group, Inc. was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.Priced within the modelled range
Other models: USD 58.48–68.57 (median 59.86). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Uses reported dividends of USD 4.1600 per share from Fiscal year 2025, with 2% perpetual growth (base growth capped at the terminal rate) and 9.2% discount rates. The range varies growth and discount assumptions by 1 percentage point; it is illustrative, not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 2%, discount rate 9.20%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 2.0% (sector default 5.3%, own revenue history -2.7%, analyst revenue consensus 1.0%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 8.5% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 1.0% a year; the growth assumption used is 2.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.
Compare models- Recommended: Dividend discount model — USD 58.93 (-24.0%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 58.48 (-24.6%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 67.18 (-13.4%)
Not used: Not chosen: Dividend discount model ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 68.57 (-11.6%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 59.86 (-22.8%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 67.23 (-13.3%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 113.71 (+46.6%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 45.67 | -69.9% |
| Base USD 58.93 | -31.6% |
| Bull USD 82.40 | 5.8% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 77.58 the market implies perpetual dividend growth of about this rate (discount rate 9.2%).
Compare: the market implies 3.6% a year, this model assumes 2.0%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Dividend discount model value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price. Dividend growth cannot exceed the long-run rate, so duplicate capped scenarios are omitted.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0% | 44.31 | 39.97 | 36.40 | 33.42 | 30.88 |
| 0.0% | 57.78 | 50.73 | 45.22 | 40.78 | 37.14 |
| 2.0% | 81.60 | 68.44 | 58.93 | 51.75 | 46.12 |
| 2.4% | 88.75 | 73.45 | 62.64 | 54.61 | 48.41 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 84 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue -1.6% a year | 4 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 1.9x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 48% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Staples
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MO (this company) | USD 77.58 | -27.7% | 15.9 | – | 5.5% | 84 |
| ORK.OL Orkla ASA | NOK 103.30 | 31.4% | 14.7 | 2.4 | 9.7% | 82 |
| WN.TO George Weston Limited | CAD 109.72 | 26.2% | 39.8 | 9.1 | 1.2% | 72 |
| KHC Kraft Heinz | USD 25.32 | 25.2% | – | 0.8 | 6.3% | 36 |
| CA.PA Carrefour SA | EUR 13.59 | 24.1% | 29.1 | 0.8 | 8.7% | 72 |
| ABF.L Associated British Foods plc | GBP 19.83 | 19.1% | 15.0 | 1.2 | 3.2% | 82 |
| ADM Archer Daniels Midland | USD 70.47 | 16.8% | 13.7 | 1.4 | 3.0% | 64 |
| AXFO.ST Axfood AB | SEK 281.90 | 8.5% | 24.8 | 8.1 | 3.1% | 70 |
| DLTR Dollar Tree | USD 137.94 | 0.3% | 16.3 | 7.7 | – | 72 |
| Peer median | 16.3 | 1.9 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 4.29 per share · yield 5.53% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 3.230 |
| 2025 | 4.160 |
| 2024 | 4.000 |
| 2023 | 3.840 |
| 2022 | 3.680 |
| 2021 | 3.520 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · SEC EDGAR annual filings · period ended 31 Dec 2025
| Revenue | USD 23,279,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 10,165,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 9,899,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 6,947,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 9,074,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD -216,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 25,709,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 4,474,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD -3,222,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 1,683,000,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 4.1600 |