MO

Altria

Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. It offers cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; large cigars and pipe tobacco under the Black & Mild brand; moist smokeless tobacco and oral tobacco products under… Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. It offers cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; large cigars and pipe tobacco under the Black & Mild brand; moist smokeless tobacco and oral tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands; oral nicotine pouches under the on! brand; and e-vapor products under the NJOY ACE brand. The company sells its products to distributors, as well as large retail organizations, such as chain stores. Altria Group, Inc. was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Market price
USD 77.58
Within modeled range
Base value (FCFF (steady state)) is 11.0% below the market price
5-year outlook: 8.4% per year · forecast
Data: Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026, period ended 30 Sep 2026 from EODHD (downloaded 1 h ago). Last earnings: 29 Oct 2026
Verdict

Priced within the modelled range

PriceUSD 77.58
Fair value range49.83–104.28base 69.04
Estimate reliabilityHigh
5-year outlook8.4% / yr≈ USD 116.36 in 5 yrs

Why: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.

Details and the full model are below.

FCFF (steady state)

Market price within modeled range

Showing the FCFF (steady state) you selected on the company card, using 2% growth, 2.4% terminal growth and 9.2% discount. The range varies these assumptions slightly; it is illustrative, not investment advice.

Assumptions: growth 2%, discount rate 9.20%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.

Blended growth assumption: 2.0% (sector default 5.3%, own revenue history -2.7%, analyst revenue consensus 1.0%).

5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 8.4% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.

Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 1.0% a year; the growth assumption used is 2.0%.

Adjust assumptions

Show the recommended model instead

Why this model: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.

Compare models
  • Recommended: Dividend discount model — USD 60.39 (-22.2%)
  • EPS-based Gordon proxy — USD 68.89 (-11.2%)
    Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
  • DCF (trailing free cash flow) — USD 67.64 (-12.8%)
    Not used: Not chosen: Dividend discount model ranks ahead of it for this company.
  • FCFF (steady state) — USD 69.04 (-11.0%)
    Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
  • EV/EBITDA (12x) — USD 73.49 (-5.3%)
    Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
  • Fade DCF (10-year growth fade) — USD 67.69 (-12.7%)
    Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
  • EV/Sales (Rule of 40) — USD 136.13 (+75.5%)
    Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
Illustrative range / share USD 49.83–104.28
Base scenario / share USD 69.04
Margin of safety (share of value) Priced for base-to-bull outcomes
Bear USD 49.83-55.7%
Base USD 69.04-12.4%
Bull USD 104.2825.6%

Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.

Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.

Price history and fair value

No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.

More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials

Quality score: 84 / 100

Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.

Profitability5 of 5 years profitable20 / 20
Cash generationfree cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years20 / 20
Growthrevenue -4.0% a year4 / 20
Balance sheetnet debt 1.8x EBITDA20 / 20
MarginsEBITDA margin 56%20 / 20

Peers in Consumer Staples

Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.

CompanyPriceMargin of safetyP/EP/BYieldQuality
MO (this company) USD 77.58 -28.5% 16.0 – 5.5% 84
ORK.OL Orkla ASA NOK 103.30 31.4% 14.7 2.4 9.7% 82
WN.TO George Weston Limited CAD 109.72 26.2% 39.8 9.1 1.2% 72
KHC Kraft Heinz USD 25.32 25.2% – 0.8 6.3% 36
CA.PA Carrefour SA EUR 13.59 24.1% 29.1 0.8 8.7% 72
ABF.L Associated British Foods plc GBP 19.83 19.1% 15.0 1.2 3.2% 82
ADM Archer Daniels Midland USD 70.47 16.8% 13.7 1.4 3.0% 64
AXFO.ST Axfood AB SEK 281.90 8.5% 24.8 8.1 3.1% 70
DLTR Dollar Tree USD 137.94 0.3% 16.3 7.7 – 72
Peer median 16.3 1.9

Dividends

Paid in the last 12 months: USD 4.29 per share · yield 5.53% at the current price.

YearDividends per share
2026 (so far)3.230
20254.160
20244.000
20233.840
20223.680
20213.520
Sector Consumer Staples
Exchange NASDAQ
Currency USD

Trailing 12-month financials

TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:10

RevenueUSD 21,304,000,000
EBITDAUSD 12,002,000,000
EBITUSD 11,776,000,000
Net incomeUSD 8,116,000,000
Free cash flowUSD 9,071,000,000
Capital expendituresUSD 351,000,000
DebtUSD 24,061,000,000
CashUSD 2,697,000,000
Working capitalUSD -3,492,000,000
Shares outstanding1,669,000,000
Reported dividends per shareUSD 4.2630