Progressive Corporation
The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. It writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. The company also writes auto-rela…
The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. It writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. The company also writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance for comprising dump trucks, log trucks, garbage trucks, tractors, trailers, straight trucks, tow trucks and wreckers, vans, pick-up trucks, and autos; business-related general liability and commercial property insurance for small businesses; and workers' compensation insurance for the transportation industry. In addition, it offers other specialty property-casualty insurance and provides related services; personal property reinsurance products; and involved in investment activities. It sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as online and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.Looks undervalued
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Dividend discount model disagrees strongly.
Why: Dividends are small or missing, and cash-flow models do not suit financials, so value is based on reinvestment-adjusted earnings.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price below modeled range
Showing the EV/EBITDA (12x) you selected on the company card, using 8.12% growth, 2.4% terminal growth and 9.6% discount. The range varies these assumptions slightly; it is illustrative, not investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 8.12%, discount rate 9.60%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 8.1% (sector default 5.4%, own revenue history 16.4%, analyst revenue consensus 5.3%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 5.3% a year; the growth assumption used is 8.1%.
Adjust assumptions
Show the recommended model instead
Why this model: Dividends are small or missing, and cash-flow models do not suit financials, so value is based on reinvestment-adjusted earnings.
Compare models- Recommended: Earnings-based DCF — USD 252.76 (+10.7%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 283.91 (+24.4%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 629.22 (+175.6%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 528.11 (+131.3%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 470.48 (+106.1%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 625.77 (+174.1%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 935.83 (+309.9%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 418.10 | 45.4% |
| Base USD 470.48 | 51.5% |
| Bull USD 522.86 | 56.3% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 90 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +16.6% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net cash | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 17% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Financials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGR (this company) | USD 228.30 | 9.7% | 11.4 | 3.9 | 0.2% | 90 |
| PSH.L Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. | GBP 38.44 | 68.5% | 3.7 | 0.6 | 1.3% | 76 |
| LRE.L Lancashire Holdings Limited | GBP 6.88 | 45.6% | 7.1 | 1.6 | 3.3% | 76 |
| ACA.PA Credit Agricole S.A. | EUR 15.73 | 36.6% | 6.7 | 0.7 | 7.0% | 78 |
| V Visa Inc. | USD 414.00 | 34.6% | 8.7 | – | 0.2% | 100 |
| PRU.L Prudential plc | GBP 9.24 | 34.2% | 8.0 | 1.6 | 1.9% | 78 |
| AGS.BR ageas SA/NV | EUR 76.95 | 33.0% | 8.1 | 1.5 | 5.0% | 76 |
| NWG.L NatWest Group plc | GBP 5.86 | 30.3% | 8.2 | 1.3 | 5.0% | 88 |
| ACGL Arch Capital Group | USD 108.49 | 30.3% | 8.5 | 1.6 | 0.1% | 100 |
| Peer median | 8.1 | 1.5 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 13.90 per share · yield 6.09% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 13.900 |
| 2025 | 4.900 |
| 2024 | 1.150 |
| 2023 | 0.400 |
| 2022 | 0.400 |
| 2021 | 6.400 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:10
| Revenue | USD 91,717,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 15,247,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 15,007,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 11,622,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 15,224,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 438,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 8,389,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 99,338,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD 38,951,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 582,200,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 0.4000 |