AppLovin
AppLovin Corporation provides end-to-end artificial intelligence-powered advertising solutions for businesses in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Advertising and Apps. The company offers Axon Ads Manager, a suite of marketing solutions that enables developers…
AppLovin Corporation provides end-to-end artificial intelligence-powered advertising solutions for businesses in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Advertising and Apps. The company offers Axon Ads Manager, a suite of marketing solutions that enables developers to automate, optimize, and manage marketing efforts; MAX, an in-app bidding technology that optimizes the value of a publisher's advertising inventory by running a real-time competitive auction; Adjust, a measurement and analytics marketing platform; and Wurl, a connected TV platform, which distributes streaming video for content companies, provides advertising and publishing solutions. It serves individuals, small and independent businesses, enterprises, advertisers and advertising networks, mobile app publishers, and indie studio developers. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly.
Other models: USD 133.75–156.32 (median 149.53). The recommended value is 79% above that median, so treat the upside with extra caution.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using a three-year average of free cash flow, because the latest figure is depressed by heavy investment or one-off items, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 18.77% growth, 2.9% terminal growth, and 10.4% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 18.77%, discount rate 10.40%, terminal growth 2.90% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 18.8% (sector default 7.0%, own revenue history 18.4%, analyst revenue consensus 24.9%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 24.9% a year; the growth assumption used is 18.8%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 268.08 (-24.7%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 133.75 (-62.4%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 299.28 (-16.0%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 156.32 (-56.1%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 149.53 (-58.0%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 295.78 (-16.9%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 237.40 (-33.3%)
Not used: Used only when cash-flow models land far below the price; here they do not.
| Bear USD 198.45 | -79.4% |
| Base USD 268.08 | -32.8% |
| Bull USD 390.28 | 8.8% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 356.10 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.9%, discount 10.4%).
Compare: the market implies 26.3% a year, this model assumes 18.8%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 12.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.8% | 318.22 | 266.76 | 229.08 | 200.32 | 177.66 |
| 16.8% | 345.05 | 288.99 | 247.95 | 216.63 | 191.97 |
| 18.8% | 373.71 | 312.72 | 268.08 | 234.03 | 207.22 |
| 20.8% | 404.29 | 338.03 | 289.55 | 252.57 | 223.46 |
| 22.8% | 436.89 | 365.00 | 312.41 | 272.31 | 240.75 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 96 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 4 of 5 years profitable | 16 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +28.2% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 0.1x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 80% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Communication Services
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP (this company) | USD 356.10 | 4.3% | 24.3 | 36.9 | – | 96 |
| DTE.DE Deutsche Telekom AG | EUR 25.87 | 49.7% | 14.4 | 2.1 | 5.5% | 82 |
| PUB.PA Publicis Groupe S.A. | EUR 102.60 | 42.0% | 15.7 | 2.5 | 3.5% | 90 |
| VOD.L Vodafone Group Public Limited Company | GBP 1.17 | 42.0% | – | 0.7 | 3.2% | 66 |
| CMCSA Comcast | USD 24.95 | 39.1% | 7.9 | 1.0 | 5.4% | 82 |
| TEF.MC Telefonica, S.A. | EUR 3.36 | 33.8% | – | – | 8.9% | 59 |
| INF.L Informa plc | GBP 8.40 | 23.0% | – | 1.9 | 2.4% | 66 |
| SONY Sony Group Corporation | USD 27.54 | 19.5% | – | – | – | 82 |
| EMBRAC-B.ST Embracer Group AB | SEK 95.44 | 18.5% | – | 1.0 | – | 56 |
| Peer median | 14.4 | 1.5 | ||||
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · SEC EDGAR annual filings · period ended 31 Dec 2025
| Revenue | USD 5,480,717,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 4,346,692,000 |
| EBIT | USD 4,151,914,000 |
| Net income | USD 3,333,751,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 3,971,094,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD |
| Debt | USD 3,512,987,000 |
| Cash | USD 2,487,096,000 |
| Working capital | USD 3,097,004,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 341,970,000 |