Archer Daniels Midland
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company provides human and animal nutrition ingredients and solutions in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and N…
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company provides human and animal nutrition ingredients and solutions in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition. The company engages in the origination, merchandising, transportation, and storage of agricultural raw materials, as well as the crushing and processing of oilseeds, including soybeans and soft seeds, such as cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed; produces and markets vegetable oils and oilseed protein meals used by food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; sale of crude and partially refined vegetable oils; supplies peanuts and peanut-derived ingredients; and manufactures cotton cellulose pulp. It is also involved in the grain sourcing, handling, and multimodal transportation network supporting import, export, and distribution activities; structured trade finance activities; corn and wheat wet and dry milling and related processing activities; production of distillers' grains, corn gluten feed, and corn gluten meal for use as animal feed ingredients; and carbon capture and sequestration and other emissions-reduction initiatives. In addition, the company engages in the creation, manufacturing, sale, and distribution of an array of ingredients and solutions comprising plant-based proteins, flavors and colors derived from nature, flavor systems, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, probiotics, prebiotics, postbiotics, enzymes, botanical extracts, and other specialty food and feed ingredients and systems. Further, it is involved in the derivatives and commodity exchanges and clearing houses; and insurance coverage for certain property, casualty, marine, medical, and other miscellaneous risks. The company was founded in 1902 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart.
Other models: USD 9.87–116.55 (median 72.68). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Latest free cash flow is depressed by heavy investment or one-off items, so a three-year average is used instead.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Normalised free-cash-flow DCF using a three-year average of free cash flow, because the latest figure is depressed by heavy investment or one-off items, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 2% growth, 2.4% terminal growth, and 9.2% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 2%, discount rate 9.20%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 2.0% (sector default 5.3%, own revenue history -7.5%, analyst revenue consensus 5.1%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 5.1% a year; the growth assumption used is 2.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Latest free cash flow is depressed by heavy investment or one-off items, so a three-year average is used instead.
Compare models- Recommended: Normalised free-cash-flow DCF — USD 84.70 (+20.2%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 72.68 (+3.1%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 9.69 (-86.3%)
Not used: Free cash flow is only 14% of net income, so a cash-flow model is probably depressed by investment timing.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 9.87 (-86.0%)
Not used: Free cash flow is only 14% of net income, so a cash-flow model is probably depressed by investment timing.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 116.55 (+65.4%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 9.69 (-86.2%)
Not used: Free cash flow is only 14% of net income, so a cash-flow model is probably depressed by investment timing.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 264.32 (+275.1%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 61.92 | -13.8% |
| Base USD 84.70 | 16.8% |
| Bull USD 127.03 | 44.5% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 70.47 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.4%, discount 9.2%).
Compare: the market implies -2.1% a year, this model assumes 2.0%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
How the Normalised free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0% | 100.15 | 83.03 | 70.95 | 61.95 | 54.99 |
| 0.0% | 109.84 | 90.92 | 77.57 | 67.63 | 59.95 |
| 2.0% | 120.29 | 99.43 | 84.70 | 73.75 | 65.29 |
| 4.0% | 131.56 | 108.59 | 92.38 | 80.33 | 71.02 |
| 6.0% | 143.68 | 118.44 | 100.63 | 87.39 | 77.17 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 64 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue -4.6% a year | 4 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 0.1x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 6% | 0 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Staples
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADM (this company) | USD 70.47 | 16.8% | 13.7 | 1.4 | 3.0% | 64 |
| ORK.OL Orkla ASA | NOK 103.30 | 31.4% | 14.7 | 2.4 | 9.7% | 82 |
| WN.TO George Weston Limited | CAD 109.72 | 26.2% | 39.8 | 9.1 | 1.2% | 72 |
| KHC Kraft Heinz | USD 25.32 | 25.2% | – | 0.8 | 6.3% | 36 |
| CA.PA Carrefour SA | EUR 13.59 | 24.1% | 29.1 | 0.8 | 8.7% | 72 |
| ABF.L Associated British Foods plc | GBP 19.83 | 19.1% | 15.0 | 1.2 | 3.2% | 82 |
| AXFO.ST Axfood AB | SEK 281.90 | 8.5% | 24.8 | 8.1 | 3.1% | 70 |
| DLTR Dollar Tree | USD 137.94 | 0.3% | 16.3 | 7.7 | – | 72 |
| CCH.L Coca-Cola HBC AG | GBP 41.18 | -0.8% | 19.4 | 4.7 | 2.1% | 90 |
| Peer median | 19.4 | 3.5 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 2.07 per share · yield 2.94% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 1.560 |
| 2025 | 2.040 |
| 2024 | 2.000 |
| 2023 | 1.800 |
| 2022 | 1.600 |
| 2021 | 1.480 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 05 Nov 2026 16:05
| Revenue | USD 84,062,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 4,737,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 3,549,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 2,483,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 346,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 1,129,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 10,062,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 9,629,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD 9,125,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 484,000,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 2.0826 |